We share free picks as the NASCAR’s Sprint Cup series will wrap-up the first half of this season’s point-race schedule with the running of this year’s Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway.
In a wild finish late last Sunday night at Daytona, my top valued favorite Dale Earnhardt Jr. at +800 betting odds was able to outrun a major wreck on the final lap to hold on for the victory. Jimmie Johnson took second in last week’s Coke Zero 400 and Denny Hamlin finished third.
The following is a look at my top valued favorite, contender and longshot to win this Saturday night’s race based on betting odds provided by Bovada.
MUST READ: NASCAR Sprint Cup Title Futures Odds Update
Top Valued Favorite
Jimmie Johnson continues to light-up the track with his eighth top-three finish in his last 11 Sprint Cup point events. He also leads the field with four total victories this season, which is even more reason to go with him this week as a 6/1 second-favorite behind Kevin Harvick to make it win No. 5. The No. 48 car has moved up to third in the current Sprint Cup standings with a total of 589 points and those four previous wins assures the team a spot in this season’s Chase. Johnson has never finished outside the top 10 at Kentucky in four previous Sprint Cup races to post an average finishing position of 7.0, but he is still looking for his first win.
Top Valued Contender
A serious injury in a Speed Week wreck at Daytona kept Kyle Busch out of the first 11 point-race events this season and while the No. 18 car has only cracked the top-10 twice in his six races behind the wheel, one of those runs was a victory on the road course at Sonoma a few weeks back. The main reason I like Busch as my top contender this week at 12/1 betting odds is a sterling track record at Kentucky over the past four seasons. He won this race in 2011 and he followed-up that up with a fifth-place finish in 2013. He went on to post a second-place finish last season’s event.
Top Valued Longshot
Kentucky could be an excellent venue to try and capitalize on longer odds given the relatively short amount of time the Sprint Cup series has been racing here. I might be taking things a bit too far with this week’s pick, but I am going with Ryan Newman as my top longshot sports pick at 50/1 betting odds. The No. 31 car has not really lived-up to expectations after posting an impressive and improbable second-place finish in last season’s Sprint Cup standings, but it still has four top-five finishes to its credit through the first 17 point races this year. Some extra value gets added to these odds with Newman’s third-place finish at Kentucky last year. He also finished fourth here in 2011.
Betting Odds for other Notable Drivers
As mentioned, Harvick is this week’s favorite to win at 5/1 odds although is best career finish here is seventh in last year’s race. Third on the list behind Johnson is Martin Truex Jr. at 13/2 followed by last season’s Quaker State 400 Champion Brad Keselowski at 7/1 betting odds. Both Kurt Busch and Matt Kenseth are listed at 15/2 and Dale Earnhardt Jr. rounds-out the top eight favorites at 9/1.