Premier League Soccer Picks: Tottenham vs Everton

Lee Phelps

Friday, November 28, 2014 9:54 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 28, 2014 9:54 PM GMT

Tottenham versus Everton is one of the longest standing fixtures in the top division of English football and the odds are tight in this latest Premier League encounter. Our tipster is looking at who is worth backing in the betting as he provides his free soccer picks.

The Premier League pits two very equally matched teams with very similar aims together this Sunday with Tottenham taking on Everton at White Hart Lane.

Both have a midweek Europa League game behind them, both are on 17 points, with the Merseysiders a place above in 9th courtesy of scoring more goals than Spurs.

 

Tottenham
Stats can often be used to argue whichever way you want and I wonder if the Spurs' hierarchy is being fooled by the fact they have one defeat and four wins in their last five matches. Three of the victories were away at Hull, Aston Villa and Asteras Tripolis, whilst Brighton were beaten in the Premier League Cup.

Another stat is that they have won 1 home game in the Premier League in five, losing four and scoring just three goals. So, why are they so poor at home? Mauricio Pochettino has an explanation: the pitch at The Lane is too small.

"Our style means we need a bigger space to play because we play a positional game,” Pochettino said. “It’s true that White Hart Lane is a little bit tight and it’s better for the opponent when they play deep. There were two shots from Newcastle – it was unlucky for us. And they play deep. West Bromwich play deep, Liverpool the same, they play very deep and it was difficult for us. We need time to adapt to our new set-up and to understand better our position on the pitch.”

It doesn't sound an easy problem to solve and by saying that in public it gives opposition managers a ready-made system.

Out-of-sorts striker Emmanuel Adebayor has another reason for the lack of points in front of their own supporters: the supporters.

"When you are playing in front of your own crowd you want them to support you, but now it is like going through a sad moment and your family not welcoming you home," said Adebayor.

"That's the worst thing ever because you have nowhere to go. At the moment I don't know whether we should play at home or whether we should play away. And I am not just talking about me, I am speaking on behalf of all the players.

"I think it might be better to play away from home at the moment because at least we know beforehand we are guaranteed to be booed because they want their home club to win."

Before we consider Everton, one more reason from the manager: the players' mentality.

“We did a lot of work on the psychological side in groups and as individuals on the training ground, in meeting rooms and in my personal office,” Pochettino said. “But always you need more time to change the habits. We talk about mentalities and changing habits. It is harder to work on. The mental process is always more slow than the physical or tactical. We know that our challenge is to change this mentality.”

 

Everton
Everton know all of the above and have the players to take advantage of it, but they have their own problems this season, they have for instance made a league-high six errors leading to goals. Everton have kept just two clean sheets in their last 21 Premier League visits to London.

They have also only kept one clean on the road this season in the top division (2-0 at West Brom), but on the flip side they have scored in all six matches away from Goodison Park, in fact they have only failed to score in one of the last 11 away goals.

 

Soccer Picks
Given that both sides have been in action in midweek, albeit Tottenham had a home game, whilst Everton travelled to Germany, I think we could see a steady game here.

The struggles at home give Everton the edge for me, they will sit in deep and look to hit Spurs on the break with their pace and quality on the flanks, plus they know Lukaku, who scored in the Europa League, and Samuel Eto'o are capable of grabbing a goal with few chances.

When considering your Premier League soccer picks I lean to Tottenham on the freshness, because they are at home and haven't had to travel, so all things measured, I see a draw listed at 5/2 as the best bet here, but for anyone looking for a bigger price try the double result bet of Everton to be winning at half time and the draw at full time listed at Premier League soccer odds at 16/1.

The thinking behind it is that Spurs have conceded five goals in the opening 15 minutes of games this season, which is almost a third of them, but have also scored three 90th minute goals and could come on string as Everton tire.

Free Soccer Pick: Draw 5/2 at 5Dimes

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