Premier League's Soccer Pick for Lowest Scoring Team this Season

Lee Phelps

Thursday, March 5, 2015 8:03 PM GMT

It must be hard watchin teams who average less than a goal a game. William Hill's Lee Phelps has been looking at four of the worst scoring teams, to find out who will finish bottom of the pile.

Goals mean points and points mean prizes in the Premier League. Unfortunately a lack of goals could well mean Championship football. In fact the club with the least goals has been relegated in seven of the last ten seasons, so who will finish 2014/15 with the fewest in the ‘for’ column?

I’ve picked four sides to look at who are the most likely to finish bottom of the pile (their current goals are in brackets): Aston Villa (15), Sunderland (23), Leicester (24) and Burnley (20).

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Aston Villa
Villa are close to rivalling Derby’s 20 goal haul when they were relegated with just 15 goals. It’s staggering to think they have only scored four goals in 13 away matches. They have got 11 at Villa Park (helped by the two they struck to beat West Brom this week). So can they score enough to beat any of the three teams above them? It looks unlikely. So far they have averaged a paltry 0.53 goals per game, so will have to increase that ratio to 1.8 a match to stand a chance if the other maintain their season average.

Villa’s remaining 10 games include QPR, Burnley and Everton at home and they are three of the worst five away defences, while they also have Sunderland at the Stadium of the Light, who have also been porous at the back.

However their other away games are at the joint second, fifth and seventh best home back fours.

 

Sunderland
The Black Cats brought Jermain Defoe to the club to score goals to keep them in the top flight and he started ok, but the jury is out whether he can maintain the run. They have only got one team left to play at home who are in the top 10 best away defences and that is the best of all: Southampton.

Their travels take them to three of the best home defences in Chelsea, Arsenal and West Ham, so goals may be hard to come by there, but easier at Stoke and Everton.

Leicester City
The Foxes are one goal better off than Sunderland and have an extra home game to play with three of the six against sides in the bottom 10 travelling defences, while Swansea are 10th and West Ham ninth. Even Chelsea are ‘only’ fifth best, so they have chances to add to that 24 total.

West Brom, Burnley and Sunderland are three of their five remaining away days, so there is scope to score at each of those three grounds. They have arguably the easiest run-in of these four teams, so I can’t see them finishing as the worst scorers.

 

Burnley
The Clarets have the second worst away goals in the division (7) but the joint best home tally of any of the four I’ve picked. Unfortunately for them, it’s the away games that look easiest, with trips to Everton, Hull and Aston Villa (all three are in bottom 10) while they welcome the likes of Manchester City, Arsenal and Tottenham to Turf Moor.

I still don’t see Villa catching Burnley’s total, but I can see Sean Dyche’s men finishing closest to Tim Sherwood’s side in the goals race.

 

Soccer Pick: Christian Benteke would have to find his very best form for Aston Villa to stand any chance of overhauling one of the three clubs I’ve examined here. I can’t see that. Although it’s the boring soccer pick, I just can’t see Villa averaging two goals a game for the rest of the season, so it has to be them who finish bottom of this particular table. Will they finish bottom of the main one though?