Premier League Picks for Saturday's Southampton vs. Everton

Lee Phelps

Friday, August 14, 2015 12:31 PM GMT

Friday, Aug. 14, 2015 12:31 PM GMT

Two more of Southampton's golden generation have left this summer, so can they continue to cope? William Hill's Lee Phelps is looking at the odds for his free betting pick on the match.

If I was a player being courted by Southampton and Everton, there wouldn’t be much competition in my mind where I would be based. The south coast has better weather than Merseyside, but it is the club ethos and brand of football that would attract me. Yes, Saints are a selling club but they are happy to buy too. Everton have spent just £4 million pounds so far this summer, by far the lowest in the division.

 

Southampton
Saints’ home form was great in the last few games of last season and it has continued in the Europa League this term too, scoring 16 and conceded three in their last six games at St Mary’s. This fixture last season also saw Ronald Koeman’s men win 3-0 against Everton.

He mixes his home tactics up, with defensive formations more likely to be utilised than two up front, in fact the manager only played two up front once all season and that was at home to Everton. I wouldn’t be surprised if they try it again with Pelle and Long up front.

Those two have already scored five goals between them this season, so are worth looking at to score in the game. Pelle is 2.4 (6/5) and Long is 2.5 (6/4) to score anytime.

 

Everton
I read various article explaining why Everton were poor last season. Most of them pointed to an ageing squad with their best players slowly losing form. They have made the Cleverley move permanent and paid £4m for Gerard Deulofeu. I can’t see that being enough to improve and judging by their opening day 2-2 at Watford it hasn’t.

They started last season scoring and conceding goals, including a 2-2 against then newly promoted Leicester. They ended up conceding 50 goals, which is the most Everton have let in since 2003/04. I was never convinced by Roberto Martinez defensive abilities as a manager at Wigan, when he never managed to arrest their frailties and he has made the Toffees more brittle at the back too.

They let in the sixth most away goals last season and only QPR, Burnley, Villa, Leicester and Newcastle lost more games on the road. On the flip side, they scored the 7th most on the road and the same as Manchester United.

 

Soccer Picks
At 2.0 (Evs) it’s hard to overlook Saints and I’ve also outlined the goal scorer bets I like in Pelle and Long. Giving the goal stats I’ve described it’s the over 2.5 goals I like here. Admittedly Southampton may have to score all three themselves, but I think that is a possibility again.

Free Premier League Pick: Over 2.5 goals 2.15 (23/20) at William Hill

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