Premier League Picks: Newcastle United vs. Burnley Preview

Kevin Stott

Thursday, January 1, 2015 7:38 PM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 1, 2015 7:38 PM UTC

Without suspended star striker Papiss Cisse, Newcastle United will be without its strongest offensive threat, making the Under a potentially good bet against Burnley at St. James’ Park on New Years Day.

Odds Overview
Newcastle United vs. Burnley, Thursday 15:00 (NBC Sports Live Extra, Premier League Extra Time (USA), 10 a.m. ET/7 a.m. PT): St. James’ Park in Newcastle upon Tyne is the site of this English Premier League Week 20 meeting between host and 10th-place Newcastle United (7-5-7, 22 GF-28 GA) and 19th-place Burnley (3-7-9, 14 GF-29 GA) on New Year’s Day. Oddsmakers have made Newcastle United -133 favorites in the Three-Way (Winner) market with visiting Burnley solid +425 underdogs and the Draw set at a +280 (bet365). The Total Goals is in this match is 2½ with equal vigorish (-111, bet365) on the Over and the Under.

The Both Teams To Score odds in this one see the Yes priced at -125 (BetVictor, No +100) and some other interesting prop wagers here include: Total Corners 11½ Under -137; and, To Win To Nil with Newcastle United at +187 and Burnley priced at +700 (bet365). And in the To Be Relegated marketplace, Burnley is -225 (bet365) to be one of the three teams bounced from the English Premier League in its annual purge, while The Toon is currently priced at +4000 (40/1).


Burnley FC
Manager Sean Dyche and Burnley (1-3-5 Away, 7 GF-17 GA) won the hearts of a lot of people with its dramatic 2-2 DRAW against defending champions Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday in a game which saw the Clarets rally from a 2-0 deficit to tie with the Citizens in the second half on goals by George Boyd and Ashley Barnes. The win is sure to ignite a fire underneath Burnley, but with just 26 points, a league-low 14 goals—the same number as Manchester City’s Sergio Agüero has scored—and one win in its last 6 games (1-2-3), that last game in Sky Blue Mancunia may have been the highlight of Burnley’s season. We’ll see. But you usually don’t go from scoring 14 goals in the first half of the season to scoring like 28 in the second half so unless Cristiano Ronaldo decides he suddenly wants to head to Turf Moor to ply his wares, this team will have to try to play great defense in front of goalkeeper Tom Heaton, win low-scoring affairs and scrape up their 1 and 3 points where they can find them from now until mid-May.

The Clarets leading scorers are Danny Ings (4 goals) and the aforementioned Barnes (4 goals) with Boyd (3 goals) the only other Burnley player with multiple scores. Scott Arfield, Michael Kightly and Ross Wallace have the clubs other three goals heading into the second half of the season. Some of the Anytime Goalscorer odds for Burnley for this game include: Ings (+225, bet365), Sam Vokes (+260), Barnes (+260), Lukas Jutkiewicz (+333) and Boyd (+550).


Newcastle United FC
Newcastle United (5-2-2 Home, 13 GF-11 GA) has slightly better current form (L6) than Burnley does with a 2-1-3 record, but after the nasty start to the season and calls for manager Alan Pardew’s head, the Magpies have actually responded really nicely and may be able to have a decent second half if they can somehow get some stable goalkeeping. As expected, Newcastle United has received the bulk of its scoring from Senegalese striker Papiss Cissé (9 goals) and the imbalance of scoring on this roster is somewhat dangerous, especially when things like a three-game suspension for violent conduct (against Everton’s Seamus Coleman on Dec. 28) from the FA pop up and you hurt your team, as is the case now with Cisse accepting the charge on Monday. So, Newcastle United’s next leading scorer—and the only other Toonster with multiple goals—Ayoze Pérez (5 goals; +140, Anytime Goalscorer, bet365) will have to really step up here as will others for the now hamstrung hosts.

If the Magpies eventually fix their goalkeeping problems—both starter Tim Krul (ankle) and No. 2 guy Rob Elliott (thigh) are still nursing injuries—and get some scoring from some other places, they may be able to make a run at a UEFA Europa League spot but with the club now giving Pardew permission to talk with Crystal Palace, who knows how much exactly his and the players’ heads will be in each game. One thing’s for sure: This will be a good test to see if with stud Cisse out, Newcastle United can rally at home and start the second half off by getting the win and all 3 points here at St. James’.

Other Magpies in the Anytime Goalscorer soccer odds marketplace include: Emmanuel Rivière (+140), Facundo Ferreyra (+210), Adam Armstrong (+210), Rémy Cabella (+210), Yoan Gouffran (+260), Sammy Ameobi (+260), Haris Vuckic (+260), Moussa Sissoko (+375) and Mehdi Abeid (+400).


Best Betting Approaches and Trends
These two clubs tied 1-1 at Turf Moor a month ago in their only meeting so any handicap of this has to be predominantly Art and as much Science as can be drummed up between two teams that have a history about as rich and deep as do sand and ice. With Burnley on a high off the Manchester City comeback draw, it’s hard to offer a strong recommendation here on Newcastle United with Cisse suspended and Pardew flirting with Crystal Palace. So with all that going on, this may end up looking a lot like the meeting between these two a month ago. This is a tough call and honestly probably best passed on the betting board although the Under 2½ seems somewhat logical with so few guys on the pitch with more than 1 goals scored and potential stormy conditions at St. James’ on New Years Day (Forecast: 53°, Chance of Rain, 83% chance of Precipitation).

For your soccer picks today its worth noting, the Both Teams To Score (Yes) prop is an impressive 5-1 in the L6 Newcastle United fixtures and with Jak Alnwick potentially in goal for the Magpies, there is a better chance to cash on this prop than if Newcastle United were coming into this game with Cisse available and normal starting goalkeeper Krul healthy.

Prediction: Newcastle United 1 Burnley 1

Free Premier League Picks: Under 2½ -111 at 5Dimes

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