Premier League Picks: Manchester City vs. Crystal Palace

Mike Richardson

Wednesday, April 23, 2014 8:28 PM GMT

Wednesday, Apr. 23, 2014 8:28 PM GMT

If Manchester City hopes to contend for the Premier League Title, they must be victorious when facing Crystal Palace this weekend. How will this season-defining matchup play out, and does this outcome offer value for our sports picks?

The EPL is heading toward the final furlong, and while Crystal Palace are 40 points safe, Man City are still chasing the title. Third place City look to keep the pressure on Liverpool when they travel to Crystal Palace, but your Humble Handicapper knows what will happen and how to profit from it.

This is one of those games that has everything to do with the title and very little to do with the two sides facing off. Man City are second favourite to win the league at 5/1, behind league leaders Liverpool who are 1/5, while third favourite Chelsea are 33/1. Your Humble Handicapper would suggest that you stay away from the Liverpool bet, because the odds are too short and the end of the season is too tight. I'm not saying that Man City will win the league, but they will keep it interesting.

Review my free pick for Manchester Utd. vs. Norwich

Enough With Winning the League…WHERE’S THE MONEY MIKE?
If Man City are going to win the league (or indeed just keep it interesting) they will have to beat Palace. If you’re not sure what the deal is with the league, here are the facts: Liverpool are on top with 80 points, and City are third on 74, but City have a) a better goal difference, and b) a game in hand. If Liverpool win their three remaining games they will win the league, because even if City win their four remaining games they will still be three points behind (Liverpool will finish on 89 points while City will have 86, if everyone wins everything).

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The Bookies Seem to Agree With Us
Crystal Palace are 7/1 to upset City and make the Scouse happy, the draw is at 4/1 and a City win is at 4/9. City need to win this game, Palace need nothing. Palace have the magic number of 40+ points and are a clear 13 points above the dreaded dotted line, with six other sides separating them from the relegation zone. The bookies have stopped offering odds on Palace being relegated and even West Ham, who are six points worse off, are at an unlikely 80/1 to go down.

Palace may well have won their last five games, but that was before they were safe. Now they are safe and can relax a bit. City need this game and will do what they did against West Brom and start at a canter. When Palace win, they tend to just win. In fact, four of their last five games have been won by a single goal and you can get odds of Palace winning by one goal at 9/1, but when you consider that City winning  by three goals is available at best soccer odds of 57/20 you can see how likely that is.

Before making your soccer picks, it is important to note that City have not lost to Palace in 12 years and have won their last five meetings. 

Free Soccer Picks: City win at a canter 2-0 at best soccer odds of 7/1 with bet365.

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