Premier League Picks for Everton vs. West Ham United

Nila Amerova

Wednesday, February 26, 2014 2:54 PM GMT

Premier League betting features a highly intriguing clash between Everton and West Ham United. Find out what soccer odds are currently in swing and where the value soccer picks are to be had.

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Everton favoured for home win

Everton go into their clash with West Ham United as the firm favourites at -225 to win outright at Bet365, a price tag underscored by their overall sublime home form this season.

Everton are after a 1-0 defeat to Chelsea in week 27 EPL betting, a result at Stamford Bridge that was largely expected in soccer betting circles – in both outcome and low score, given that both sides boast two of the best defences in the league (by that same token, the draw did appear a suitable alternative at the time as well). Tale told, Chelsea held strong to come through on their favourable -188 soccer odds to win outright at Bet365 while the Under 2.5 was matched at -105.

While there was no shame in Everton’s defeat to Chelsea – after all they are the current Premier League leaders – leaving Stamford Bridge empty-handed saw them drop down the table to seventh place, on the edge of a European spot next season.

Everton boast a 12-9-5 mark and 45 points in 27 laps around the league, which puts them level on points with Man U but a rung down the ladder on account of goal difference. Both are five points adrift of fifth placed Tottenham Hotspur but Everton have a game in hand, which they hope will prove pivotal towards closing the gap.

Everton’s impressive season is largely built on home success where they are 8-3-1 to date, highlighted by 23 goals scored and just 10 conceded. Most recently, they’ve strung together five wins in a row, two of which were clean sheets; momentum that they’ll hope to build on with a sixth straight win over West Ham United on Saturday.

West Ham United at the disadvantage

Despite managing just four wins in their first 22 Premier League games and brazenly flirting with relegation, the Hammers stuck with Sam Allardyce while other Premier League stragglers opted for management changes. That decision now seems to have been a fortuitous one as they are sat pretty in tenth place going into week 28 EPL betting, seven points inside safety and breathing a whole lot easier for that.

Indeed the upturn in fortune can’t have escaped notice. Going back to a notable scoreless draw to Chelsea on January 29 at Stamford Bridge, which in hindsight seems to have been the catalyst for this unexpected turnaround, the Hammers have reeled off four straight wins, three of which were clean sheets, to extend their form to five unbeaten in a row. Nobody could have predicted such a complete and utter about-face: not odds makers, who wrote off their chances, and not least soccer pundits, who were merrily penning their Premier League obituary in sports-betting forums.

The best bit, one that gives them credibility, is that they didn’t face the so-called “weaklings” in the league. Beginning with a morale-boosting draw to Chelsea, they went on to beat Swansea City, Aston Villa, Norwich City and Southampton – the latter of which the most recent result in a fantastic February that has many dubbing Allardyce as the manager of the month.

Taking all this into consideration it’s somewhat surprising that West Ham United’s soccer odds for the clash with Everton lack the gravitas they’ve shown and Premier League high ground they’ve reached. At +650 to win outright and at +320 to draw, they’re priced out of the range of reasonable probability for either result.  Clearly, sportsbooks aren’t taking stock of their recent form. Are they right?

Soccer Betting Verdict

Perhaps it’s not that sportsbooks aren’t taking stock of West Ham United’s upturn in fortune but rather they are giving more credit to Everton’s home form, where they have been a tough nut to crack this season. Indeed, many quality clubs have come and gone without gaining the expected result so it follows so would the Hammers.

That being said Everton’s recent form has dropped conspicuously; they are 1-1-3 in their last five matches home and away. That it coincided with Romelu Lukaku’s injury isn’t a coincidence and the danger that it would spill forth into domestic action exists, a notion that opens the door by a crack for the upset draw or win by the Hammers at +650 soccer odds at Bet365.

The club hopes the Belgian striker will be fit and ready for their engagement with West Ham United however, a happenstance that would underscore their favourable odds considerably. Still, without the Belgian, Everton do have one of the best defences in the league and that fact alone could see them squeak by the Hammers unscathed. Well, that’s what we’re hanging our hat on at least and why we’re recommending Everton at -225 to win outright as our value soccer pick.  That and the Under 2.5 at +100 soccer odds.

Soccer Free Picks: Everton to win outright at -225; Under 2.5 at +100