Premier League Betting: Which Teams Were Value & Which Stank the Place Out?

Ed Hawkins

Friday, May 26, 2017 2:13 PM UTC

Friday, May. 26, 2017 2:13 PM UTC

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Well, until now. Earlier this season we posted on the lack of good sense of betting the big four clubs every week in accumulators. The bets that keep sportsbooks in business. But betting on individual teams with blind faith can also be fraught.

They come with massive wage structures, big-named players, huge support around the world and skinny prices. We are talking the Liverpools, the Citys, the Uniteds, the Gunners.

How much money do you think you might have made from betting on Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Arsenal to $12 level stakes in ever match from the season just gone? Go on, have a guess. Bear in mind that they each finished in the top six. And also bear in mind that they won 86 matches between them. A healthy profit, surely?

Nope. A loss in fact. Overall a punter would be $16 down. It’s extraordinary really when you think about the number of wins they totted up between them. But it absolutely highlights the poor value offered by bookies on the big teams.

Only Liverpool returned a profit, a slim $2. City would have cost you $5, Arsenal $4 and the biggest stinkers of the vaunted ones were Jose Mourinho’s United at minus $9.

Naturally, there were teams who would have lost you more. But not many. Middlesbrough, for example, cost punters on the same regimen a massive $32 by far the biggest loss. Stoke cost a whopping $19

The next worse was, rather surprisingly, Southampton. The Saints have been regarded as one of the most progressive teams in the country but in terms of value, it is clear they are terrible. They were minus $13. Then it was United.

But what about the teams who were value? The ones who we could trust to give us something back at the end of the long campaign? Well, it won’t surprise you that if you had bet Chelsea every week you would be sitting pretty, to the tune of $14. They were one of nine teams to be in the black.

The most profitable was Crystal Palace. They returned $17. Still, do bear in mind that for the vast majority of the season you would have been staring down the barrel at something very heavy indeed. Massive-priced winners at Chelsea, Liverpool and at home to Arsenal prove just how far adrift they were.

Tottenham were +429, West Brom +129 and Everton +416. But the real value will make you raise an eyebrow. Watford (+837), Burnley (+505) and Swansea (+479) backers would all have been quids in. That is particularly remarkable for a Swansea team who were in the mire.

It just goes to show that the best value teams are not those who are perceived to be bigger, better and winning every week. Something to think about over the summer, no?


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