Premier League Betting: Southampton vs. Newcastle

Nila Amerova

Thursday, March 27, 2014 7:14 PM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 27, 2014 7:14 PM UTC

Despite a point separation in the table, Southampton have the soccer-betting markets cornered in their clash with Newcastle United. Do the odds makers have it right or could Newcastle United turn the odds in their favour?

Southampton at the advantage
Sportsbooks send Southampton into their date with Newcastle United in week 32 EPL betting as the firm favourites to win outright. Listed at -138 soccer odds at Bet365, the Saints have the market cornered wholeheartedly for a home win.

Southampton are sat pretty in ninth place in the table on the back of a 12-9-10 record and 45 points. They are a point adrift of Newcastle United and are flush off a 3-2 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur at White Hart Lane at the weekend.

While Southampton boast just two wins in their last five overall games they are 2-2-1 in their last five home fixtures, an encouraging mark ahead of this pivotal clash against Newcastle United. Most recently, they beat Norwich City 4-2 at home and held both Stoke City and Arsenal to 2-2 draws each.

Newcastle United at the disadvantage
The Magpies descend on Southampton as the clear underdogs, tipped at +375 to win outright. That is a large price tag that points to a rather low probability of an upset and that could be discouraging to those soccer bettors who are considering the Magpies on their soccer picks.

Newcastle United leapfrogged Southampton in the table with a 14-4-13 mark and 46 points. They are however after a 3-0 defeat at home to Everton in midweek Premier League betting – a deflating result that marked their fifth defeat in their last seven home fixtures.

While both home and away form this season are comparable, the Magpies have performed slightly better on their travels recently. They are 3-1-3 in their last seven away fixtures and, somewhat impressively, they even managed a 1-0 win over Man U at the Old Trafford in December.

Soccer Betting Verdict:
Very little separates these two teams in the context of the league table, which means it could be a closer match than the soccer-betting markets would suggest, the disparity in their soccer odds unwarranted. The upshot of this is that there is technically value on both sides of the coin.

While odds makers are cornering this match in Southampton’s camp it’s not a given. Newcastle United are capable of the upset here and so if you are looking to back the upset on your soccer picks, you could do no worse than take the Magpies. That being said, Southampton have the home edge where they’ve experienced an upsurge of form late. That tips the balance slightly in their favour, making them our value soccer pick at -138 soccer odds to win outright.

Soccer Free Picks: Southampton to win outright at -138 at Bet365

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