Premier League Betting Picks as Unbeaten Swansea Visits Watford

Kevin Stott

Monday, September 7, 2015 1:08 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 7, 2015 1:08 PM UTC

Totals the logical idea? Or will the upstart Swans find a way to score with their red-hot strikers. Let’s examine and try to come with the best betting picks to beat the bookie.

Odds Overview
Watford vs. Swansea City [Saturday, Sep 12 10:00ET] (NBC Sports Live Extra, Premier League Extra Time Channel 1 (USA); Sky Mexico (COSTA RICA, MEXICO); Sportsnet World Now (CAN); 10 a.m. ET/7 a.m. PT): Newly promoted English Premier League side and 17th-place Watford (0-3-1, 2 GF-4 GA) welcomes 4th-place Swansea City (2-2-0, 7 GF-4 GA) to Vicarage Road in Hertfordshire on Saturday in Matchday 5 as Top Flight play resumes after a brief international break. Soccer Odds makers have made visitors Swansea City the slightest +160 favorites host Watford priced at +162 and the Draw set at +229 (bet365). The Total Goals here has been set at 2½ with the Over priced at +120 and Under juiced at -162 (Sky Bet). Some other Props for this Matchday 5 fixture: Both Teams To Score: Yes -110, No -110 (William Hill); To Win To Nil: Watford +380, Swansea City +350 (Paddy Power); and, Draw No Bet: Watford -120, Swansea City -120 (bet365).


Swansea City AFC 
Swansea City (0-2-0 on Road, 3 GF-3 GA) and Manager Garry Monk have to love the unbeaten start they’ve had this season, especially after last year’s 8th-place finish and record number of points (56). So stud striker Wilfried Bony is going, who cares? The Swans have simply gotten better since his sale to Manchester City over last season’s Winter Transfer Window and getting Éder (Braga) and André Ayew (Marseille) to join an already strong and confident squad was brilliant. Swansea City (150/1 to win EPL, Sky Bet) now has a real nice scoring force with red-hot French striker Bafétimbi Gomis (+150 Anytime Goalscorer, Boylesports), Ghanaian force Ayew (+200) and Iceland international Gylfi Sigurðsson (+250). And with Defenders Kyle Naughton, Federico Fernández, Ashley Williams and newly signed Franck Tabanou (Saint-Étienne) and GK Lukasz Fabianski, the Swans also have a tight Defense now and are poised for at least a UEFA Europa League berth. Toss in Éder, Jack Cork and Ki Sung-yueng and others and you can see why this team has had such a nice start and decided to loan Nathan Dyer to Leicester City at the end of the Summer Transfer Window. A win here at Vicarage Road would keep Swansea City (40/1 to be Relegated, 888sport) and its fans buzzing and with Watford new to the program and having trouble scoring goals, this could be a wonderful winning spot for the Swans as well as a nice plus money (+160) opportunity for Swans backers should they emerge victorious Saturday.


Watford FC
There have been two English Premier League matches held so far this season at Vicarage Road and nobody has scored a goal here yet, so Under players take note? After a 2-2 Draw in their opener at Everton on Matchday 1, the Hornets played to 0-0 scorelines at Home against West Bromwich Albion and Southampton on Matchdays 3 and 4, respectively. In its last outing, Watford (0-2-0 at Home, 0 GF-o GA) finally lost its first game, 2-0, to first-place Manchester City in a very decent outing by the visiting Hornets at the Etihad Stadium in Sky Blue Mancunia. So, Watford Manager Quique Sánchez Flores definitely has his team ready to compete in the rough-and-tumble EPL, but sooner or later the Hornets are going to have to score some goals and win some matches. Those 0-0 Draws lose their charm after the second time and 13-year-old boy Watford fans waiting for their first Home goal may turn to other fixes like chocolate or 13-year-old girls. The Foxes only two goals this season both came in the opener at Goodison Park against Everton and were scored by Odion Ighalo (+240 Anytime Goalscorer, Boylesports) and Miguel Layún who has since been loaned to Portuguese side Porto. So this Roster has only one dude on it who has scored a goal for this team this season. Not prolific, bruh. And if Watford (+130, Ladbrokes) doesn’t wake up and smell the coffee soon, then it’ll be bye-bye Premier League although they do only have one Loss and it was to the best club in the league. To help GK Heurelho Gomes and Troy Deeney (+187), Adlene Guedioura joined from Crystal Palace, Victor Ibarbo arrived on loan from Cagliari and 19-year-old Obbi Oularé (+290) signed a sweet 5-year deal with the Hornets so Watford has made a decent effort off the pitch to hopefully bring some scoring on the pitch. In 39 appearances for Belgian side Club Brugge, Oularé scored 9 goals so now that he has found his destination and earned the contract he desired, maybe the teenager can do enough to help keep the Foxes stay up in the EPL.


Series Trends, Current Form, Betting Conclusions
Watford is 2-0-0 lifetime against Swansea City in English Premier League play (5 GF-2 GA), but those two matches were all the way back in the 1982/1983 when Margaret Thatcher was still the Prime Minister of England and Dynasty and Hill Street Blues were hits on TV. So, sorta like ancient history, amigo. Forget about it. Lifetime, Swansea City is 3-2-4 (11 GF-13 GA) against the Hornets and the last time these two met on a pitch was in the 2010/11 Championship season where the two teams played to a 1-1 Draw in Wales at the Liberty Stadium. The last meeting here at Vicarage Road in Hertfordshire was that same season, and Watford prevailed 2-1, so, even though a very limited sample size, goals have been scored when these two get together. But those Trends and numbers are so Old and so insignificant that they must be deemed irrelevant. What matters now is what might happen here this weekend in 2015. And with both playing in England’s Top Flight and with the Swans feeling so good about themselves and probably having the three best attackers on the field in Gomis, Ayew and Sigurðsson, it would be wrong here not to suggest taking Swansea City. This team is no fluke and no matter how much the Hornets have dictated the pace at Home against the Baggies and Saints, it’s hard to think they’ll be able to do the same for 90 minutes against the Swans. And maybe the biggest question here will be can Watford finally score a goal at Home? With so many new players in from the Transfer Window eager to please and Fall in sight on the calendar, logic says the Hornets do. This wont be easy for the Swans, but if the Hornets are confident about the way they played against the Sky Blues, than Swansea City should be equally confident in how it stymied Manchester United at the Liberty Stadium in their last outing (2-1) with Gomis and Ayew doing what they do best—scoring goals. Keep your eye on the Swans. They may make you some money while entertaining you at the same time and there is no shame in putting a small Futures Book bet on Swansea City to with the EPL this season even though it looks like Manchester City will be really hard to beat this campaign.

Predicted Final Score: Watford 1 Swansea City 2

English Premier League Soccer Pick: Swansea City +160 (bet365) & Over 2½ +120 (Sky Bet)

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