Premier League Betting: Manchester United vs. Aston Villa

Nila Amerova

Thursday, March 27, 2014 2:36 PM GMT

Thursday, Mar. 27, 2014 2:36 PM GMT

Both Manchester United and Aston Villa will be looking to get back on the winning track when they collide in week 32 EPL betting but something is got to give.

Manchester United succumb to the Blues
In Tuesday’s derby between the Reds and the Sky Blues, the Blue reigned supreme at the Old Trafford. For the second time this season, Man United succumbed to Man City. It wasn’t the devastating display we were treated to at the Etihad earlier this season, when Man City ran away 4-1 winners. But it was nonetheless a comprehensive victory in which the visitors once again outplayed Man U rather badly. They were up a goal in less than 45 seconds. Ahead 2-0 early in the second half with Džeko scoring his second of the night and they finished off the evening with a third goal on the 90th minute courtesy of Touré.

Tale told Man City took the Manchester derby this season on a 7-1 aggregate, which correlates to bragging rights and apparently -110 soccer odds to win the title this season (given that they are now second in the table just three points behind Chelsea and with a game in hand).

Just when Man U appeared to be turning a corner, their season takes a hammer blow. They remain in seventh place in the table, 12 points adrift of a Champions League spot – what no longer seems an achievable position at +5000 futures betting odds at Bet365. A lot would have to go wrong for all their betters in the table, which is as likely as this humble match preview winning the Pulitzer Prize.

The more pressing matter: Man U have now lost six home fixtures this season. That’s more than their last three seasons combined, marking their worst home record in recent memory. Patience with David Moyes is wearing thin and with two home games on the horizon – a league fixture against Aston Villa and a Champions League quarterfinal against Bayern Munich – the pressure is threatening to reach boiling point.

Man United will be playing for pride on Saturday when they host Aston Villa; it’s a must win match as well as one they owe their fans, who’ve frankly had enough gong shows and lacklustre showings at the Old Trafford to last them to the end of the season. Some of those include the 3-0 defeat to Liverpool, 2-1 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur and shocking 2-2 draw to bottom straggling Fulham.

In spite of the waning confidence amongst loyalists, sportsbooks are trading Man U at -225 to win outright. Is this just blinkered optimism or will Man U really rise to the occasion and come through at the time of asking.


Aston Villa shouldn’t be underestimated
Sportsbooks send Aston Villa into their date with Man U as the +650 underdogs but don’t write off the visitors so quickly. They are after a recent 1-0 victory over Chelsea after all, another occasion where they were matched at +650 soccer odds and that marked their third big scalp of the season after beating Arsenal 3-1 at the Emirates and Man City 3-2 at Villa Park. If you count the 2-2 draw to Liverpool and 3-2 win over Southampton (when the Saints were enjoying better fortunes in Premier League), there’s more evidence to ponder which at the very least suggests a win (or draw) over mopey Man U isn’t absurd.

Though few and far in between have been these big upset wins in recent months by Aston Villa. So too wins in general. Explaining in some part soccer betting markets and why trends in soccer betting circles lean towards the hosts. Three big wins aren’t much to hang one’s hat on.  What’s more, three wins, two draws and five defeats in their last ten league games speak loudly. As does a 1-2-2 record in their last five away games.

But one simply can’t disregard the possibility of an upset at the Old Trafford this weekend. Aston Villa are dangerous floaters – Jose Mourinho knows only too well just how dangerous. And well Man U have been up and down this season. One never knows which Man U will show up on any given day – the one that sent fans in delighted fervour after they beat Olympiakos 3-0 at the Old Trafford to take the Champions League tie 3-2. Or the one that sent fans legging it out of the stadium in anguish after they burst out of the gates with all the intensity and enthusiasm of a slug in a 3-0 defeat to Man City.


Soccer Betting Verdict:
On paper this should be a Man U win hands down. In reality however it’s a bit of a tossup with value on both sides of the coin.

The sensible option is to take Man U at -225 on your soccer picks but perhaps the shrewd option would be to bank on the upset on your soccer picks – either by taking an Aston Villa win at +650 or even the draw at +320 soccer odds. You decide. For our money, we’re going for the stalemate.

Soccer Free Picks: Draw at +320

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