Premier League: Back Manchester City & Sergio Aguero with Your Soccer Picks Over Aston Villa

Lee Phelps

Friday, April 24, 2015 12:04 PM GMT

William Hill's Lee Phelps is looking at how booking a place in the FA Cup final will affect their performance at Manchester City. He has a free betting pick to try to find some value odds for you.

These are two teams who flatter to deceive one week and then look at their best the next. Manchester City looked like they could blow West Ham away in their last home game, but were hanging on a little in the end as a mixture of complacency and carelessness crept in.

Aston Villa booked their place in the FA Cup final with a great win over Liverpool, do you have to do wonder how much that has taken out of them ahead of this game.

 

Manchester City
I have been saying for a couple of weeks now that I cannot back City at soccer odds on. They are very short to beat this relegation threatened Aston Villa team, so true to my word I am leaving the win market alone, although I do think the home team will win and possibly to nil.

Along with my rule on not backing City to win, I also pledged to back Sergio Aguero to score in games like this. He is one of the few players in light blue who look like they have been genuinely hurt by some of the performances recently. Last week I tipped him to score first at 4.0 and it landed, I'm very tempted to go for the same that again.

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Aston Villa
Tim Sherwood has said time and time again that his team is more suited to counter-attacking football and not defensive systems and we have seen that in the way his team has been scoring goals.

Watching the Villains you can see the tactic is to hit Cristian Benteke as quickly as possible from defence or defensive midfield positions. He has certainly given the Belgian a new lease of life, although it could also be down to him finding real match fitness for the first time this season.

I'm not sure Villa will get the ball to Benteke as often as they would like, as City start to regain confidence bit by bit. However I wouldn't be surprised to see him get on the score sheet again to be honest.

Finally on Villa, their five away wins this season have all been won to nil, I can't see them shutting Man City down and scoring themselves.

 

Soccer Picks
So, for this soccer pick, I think Manchester City will win, but I can see over 2.5 goals in the match. However I'm sticking with Aguero to score in this game and there are a few ways to back him. To score two or more goals is 4.5, to score first is 4.0 and to score any time is 1.73.

Free Soccer Pick: Sergio Aguero to score first 4.0 (3/1)

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