The Preakness Stakes is the second jewel of the Triple Crown and will be contested this Saturday in Baltimore. Of course, there is a bit of drama surrounding this years Preakness because the Kentucky Derby winner, Medina Spirit, has tested positive for a banned substance. How that affects the race is yet to be seen. Now that the post positions have been drawn and the morning line odds have been set, we can look at who we think the likely winners are and why. We can also find the best longshots that could hit the board.
2021 Preakness Stakes Future Value Picks
Saturday, May 15, 2021 – 06:50 PM EDT at Pimlico
Look, the horse won the Kentucky Derby and will likely be the favorite in this race. This is a relatively weak Preakness field and Medina Spirit could well go to the front and walk them around the race track one more time. The scandal surrounding this horse has made it a little uncomfortable to bet on, but if you are wagering on Preakness day, it will be hard to leave Medina Spirit off your ticket if you want to cash it. Remember, gambling isn’t about feeling good, it’s about cashing tickets.
The main threat to Medina Spirit is the other horse trained by embattled trainer Bob Baffert, Concert Tour. Truthfully, I think Concert Tour would have won the Kentucky Derby if he were in the race, but Baffert opted to hold him out and wait for the Preakness. The question is whether the Baffert horses are working together to help Medina Spirit or if they are both going for the win. If that is the case jockey Mike Smith should have Concert Tour in prime position to pull this off. He is my top choice in this race by quite a bit.
This Chad Brown entrant has caught my eye leading into the Preakness. This horse had a very nice performance in the Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct when he made a wide run around the far turn to get the win. He did not perform well in the Wood later in the year, but that race can be excused by an awful trip. He was six to seven wide around the track and ultimately just didn’t have enough in the tank. I like him here because this is a field of only ten and he shouldn’t be super wide. Also, if Medina Spirit and Concert Tour choose to duel it out up top, the pace could fall apart and be there for Risk Taking to scoop up from the back.