Political Betting: After The DNC's Bounce, Is It Time to Buy or Dump Trump?

Donald Trump

Jason Lake

Tuesday, August 2, 2016 1:23 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2016 1:23 PM UTC

Donald Trump was making serious inroads in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. But the politics odds are in Hillary Clinton's favor, and they might stay that way.

Ah, politics. America's other National Pastime. Now that the Republican and Democratic conventions are over, we're finally on the Road to November 8. One bit of housekeeping, first: We have to do the post mortem on our political picks for Hillary Clinton's speech at the DNC. Here's the list of props and results:

Does not show cleavage (–1500) WIN
Says: Eagles, 76ers, Phillies or Flyers (+800) LOSS
Says: Supreme Court (–1500) WIN
Says: Trump University (+130) LOSS
Length: UNDER 52.5 minutes (–115) LOSS

Dang it – should have stuck with the Bleeding Gums Murphy Rule. Anyway, now that the gloves are off and the Democrats have given Donald Trump a black eye, the politics odds appear to have finally stopped moving toward the Republicans to win the 2016 presidential election. At press time, Bovada's Politic Odds has the Dems priced at –230, down slightly from –240 on July 19. Trump and the G.O.P have edged from +200 to +190.

Party Foul
Fun fact: Did you know there are other parties you can vote for in the election? It's true, although none of them is represented on Bovada's US Election odds list. For that, you'll have to check the lines at Bet365. Here's what they've got posted for U.S. election odds:

Democrats –225
Republicans +175
Independent +8000

Okay, “Independent” isn't exactly the right word for the Libertarians and the Greens, but we wouldn't recommend making that long-shot bet on the field. RC Cola had a better chance to win the Cola Wars over Coke and Pepsi. This is a two-horse race by design, and up until very recently, Trump was gaining big-time on Clinton. He was even tied in the polls at one point. Now the Democrats have pulled ahead, enjoying their convention bounce.

Duck and Cover
So where's the betting value? Well, Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight made their names on figuring out the U.S. elections, and at press time, they have Clinton and the Dems winning 67.7 percent of the time, according to their “polls-plus” forecast. That works out to –210 using our SBR Betting Odds Converter. Looks like the Republicans still have some value here.

In theory. The big thing about projecting elections, compared to sporting events, is that most American voters have already made up their minds. It's pretty rare that the party who's ahead in the polls after the convention doesn't win, but it happens – it happened to Al Gore and the Dems in 2000, although they did win the popular vote.

This year's election figures to be even more polarizing. On the “policy wonk versus buffoon” scale, Clinton is even wonkier than Gore, and Trump is even more puffed up than George W. Bush. But there's so much more to it than that. While the election campaigns themselves might be glorified “reality” shows, in the end, whoever wins gets the nuclear codes. That's real reality, folks.

Free Politics Pick: Democrats (–225)
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

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