Pick PSV +200 as Champions League Home Underdogs vs. Wolfsburg

Nikki Adams

Monday, November 2, 2015 10:40 PM GMT

PSV & Wolfsburg look to clinch the W when they collide on match day 4 of the Champions League, in what is a wide open group B. Find out where the value soccer picks are to be had.

Group B Outlook
No club can clinch or be ruled out of the competition on the heels of match day four. As it is, Wolfsburg lead group B with a 2-0-1 record and six points, but Manchester United and PFC CSKA Moskva trail just two points behind with a 1-1-1 mark and four points. PSV Eindhoven, meanwhile, prop up group B with three points after a 1-0-2 mark.

 

PSV Home Underdogs
PSV enter match day 4 as the home underdogs trading at +200 at bet365 to win outright at the expense of group B leaders Wolfsburg. PSV began the competition brightly by handing Manchester United a 2-1 loss at home, but ensuing clashes saw them fall 3-2 to CSKA Moskva and 2-0 to Wolfsburg – both defeats were on the road.

PSV and Wolfsburg are set to renew hostilities in Eindhoven on Tuesday. So far, the Dutch side is undefeated at home, albeit with one solitary game underscoring that mark. Nevertheless, they have room for optimism as they boast an undefeated record at PSV Stadion in domestic action that goes back to March of last season when they lost 3-1 to Ajax (ten wins and a draw).

This season, PSV are 7-3-1 through eleven rounds of Eredivisie and sat in third place, four points adrift of league-leading Ajax. At home, they are a 3-1-0 with a plus five-goal differential (scored 8 and conceded 3).

Most recently, PSV is coming off a 6-3 drubbing of Dutch league minnows De Graafschap on the row, which extends their recent domestic form to five straight undefeated (four wins and a draw).

 

Wolfsburg Favored On The Road
Wolfsburg look to advance their bid at the top of group B with a road win over PSV on Tuesday. That they defeated the Dutch side 2-0 at home a fortnight ago should send them into this game on a wave of optimism. Indeed, they are the bookies favorite to win outright – albeit at +140 soccer odds on the Champions League odds board at bet365.

Wolfsburg’s campaign began with a 1-0 win at home to CSKA Mosvka but it suffered a setback at the Old Trafford on match day 2 (lost 2-1). They bounced back with a crucial win over PSV at the VfL Wolfsburg Arena on match day 3, extending their solid home form in the competition.

Wolfsburg’s best results do in fact come at home, even when playing in domestic action. As it is, they are third in Bundesliga table with a 6-3-2 mark and 21 points, ten points adrift of league-leading Bayern Munich. The bulk of their positive run of form is down to a stellar home record that stands at 5-1-0. On the road, however, they are merely 1-2-2 on the season. Scoring on the road also appears to be an issue as they’ve been outscored 3-to-8.

This concerning road form is prevalent in their previous Champions League campaign as well, albeit six years ago. In the 2009-2010 UEFA Champions League, Wolfsburg went 1-0-2 on the road in the competition with losses (ironically) to Manchester United (2-1) and CSKA Moskva (2-1) in group B. The only win came against Besiktas on match day 4.

It’s somewhat uncanny that six years on, Wolfsburg draw the two of the three teams in their previous outing, which ended with a third place finish and an invitation into Europa League knockouts.

 

Soccer Betting Verdict
Obviously, as current group B leaders Wolfsburg earn the nod in soccer betting markets as the notional road favorites at +140 to win outright. Consider Wolfsburg don’t travel very well from competition to competition though, how does it not take some of the shine off of them.

On the flipside, PSV have home form that is nothing to sniff at despite the disadvantaged soccer odds. Plus, as the basement dwellers of the group, they must be desperate to win this game and keep their bid alive.

Whichever way you’re slicing this game, you must agree there is value on both sides of the coin. For our money, we’re piling on top of the attractive home underdogs on our soccer picks.

Soccer Picks: PSV +200 at Bet365

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