Pick Newcastle United +138 vs. Southampton

Nila Amerova

Wednesday, December 11, 2013 8:26 PM GMT

Newcastle United and Southampton collide in week 16 EPL betting. Join us as we dissect this intriguing matchup between two of the leagues surprise packages this season and serve up our choice soccer picks.

Newcastle top form charts

Sportsbooks send Newcastle United into their home fixture with Southampton as the favourites albeit on the short side of even money, listed at +138 soccer odds to win outright.

Consider recent evidence: wins over Man U at the Old Trafford (week 15), over Tottenham at White Hart Lane (week 11) and at home to Chelsea (week 10), and a run of form that includes a 5-0-1 record in their last six matches, which puts them atop the form table ahead of week 16. Statistical evidence that would suggest Newcastle United deserve much higher estimation in sports betting markets.

Yet for some reason sportsbooks are not buying what the Magpies are selling. It’s not as if they were facing league leaders Arsenal at St. James Park for instance – although given the compelling confirmation before us of their ability to stare down some of the league’s big clubs already this season, it would appear to be a grievous error to underestimate them even on such an occasion. (Maybe another such notch on their bedpost would be par for the course.)   

While it’s not for us to presume why odds makers aren’t cornering this match in the hosts’ camp firmly, what we can say is that their +138 odds smacks of value.

Newcastle United, currently seventh in the table on the back of an 8-2-5 mark and 26 points, are just a point adrift of Tottenham (sixth), two points adrift of Everton (fifth) and three points adrift of Man City (fourth). A win over Southampton would be crucial because it could potentially see them make important strides in the table; that is, depending on the outcome of the weekend’s full slate of action as well, of course.

At home they boast a commendable 4-2-1 record; their lone solitary defeat was to Man City. Going into week 16, they are riding a three-game winning streak at home, which includes a 2-0 win over Chelsea and 2-1 wins over both Norwich City and West Brom.              

Southampton showing signs of slowing down                  

Southampton head to St. James Park tipped at the significant disadvantage on +200 soccer odds to win outright or therein depending on the select sportsbook.

The Saints are sat in eighth place in the table with an overall 6-5-4 mark and 23 points; three points shy of their upcoming hosts.

Southampton proved to be the surprise package on the season, bursting out of the blocks with unexpected confidence and form. But that praiseworthy start to the season has hit a wall recently.

Recent form reveals a marked slowdown as they are down to 15th in the league’s form guide with a 1-2-3 mark in their last six matches, a run of form that puts them on par with struggling clubs such as Cardiff and West Brom.

Granted, the Saints were presented with a rather tough stretch in recent weeks, fixtures against the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Man City – a span of four games that saw them take just a point (on a 1-1 draw to Man City) – that would warrant trotting out any number of axioms about there being no shame in losing.... 

But (fair or not) those results do cast doubt on Southampton’s credibility, bringing up questions about their ability to sustain a place amongst the chasing pack for European spots as the season trundles along. To put it simply: are they the real deal?

As well, those very same results only serve to highlight Newcastle’s brilliant results against clubs of the same ilk and, in turn, provide even further confirmation of the inherent value in their soccer odds to win outright.

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Soccer Betting Verdict

The table suggests this is a clash between two clubs that measure up rather well against each other, seeing that they are seventh and eighth in the table. But form suggests otherwise: Newcastle are soaring high while Southampton have been floundering in recent weeks.

It’s also worth pointing out that when pitting Newcastle’s home form against Southampton’s road form (which is 2-2-3 overall), the visitors are left wanting. And that does take the shine off their +200 soccer odds at Bet365 somewhat at least for us.

Of course, Southampton can’t be underestimated and certainly they will fancy their chances against Newcastle even if we don’t – it’s a notionally winnable match for the Saints. Momentum and form however tips the scale towards the hosts as far as soccer betting goes and that’s why Newcastle to win outright is our recommended soccer pick for this match.

Soccer Picks: Newcastle United to win outright at +138