Pick Draw & 'Under' in Sunderland vs. Burnley for Your Saturday's Soccer Picks

Lee Phelps

Saturday, January 31, 2015 1:43 AM GMT

These two teams need to virtually double their points tally in the remaining 16 games to ensure Premier League survival, so it's an intriguing match up and the odds reflect that. William Hill podcast host Lee Phelps has looked at the betting and here are his favorite picks.

We're almost in February so I think we can start to call games like this relegation six-pointers! The fear is starting to creep in, and teams are scared of the loss rather than hoping for the win. One place separates these two sides, they are locked on 20 points and only one goal divides them.

 

Sunderland
The Black Cats haven't won at the Stadium of Light in the league since they defeated Stoke in October and unbelievably for somewhere that is supposed to be a 'fortress' that is the only three points they've managed in front of their own fans. It's not all bad though because they have drawn 11 of their 22 games, easily the highest in the division.

You don’t need me to tell you that winning four games and losing the other seven of those would leave you in a better place, so put simply they need to start turning those stalemates into checkmates.

The problem is they won't win games if they don't score more goals. They rarely get more than a goal in a match, in fact they have only done that twice this season.

They have brought Jermain Defoe into the club and altered the formation to accommodate and capitalise on his finishing, but they need him to hit the ground running. I've always been a fan of his and he could well be the difference that starts to add the two points to the draws on our soccer betting odds.

 

Burnley
Burnley have done so well to drag themselves out of the relegation zone, but before we get carried away they have only won once on their travels.

The stats show Burnley have scored 10 goals away from home this campaign, but it’s getting much better. They have scored in each of their last four and of those away goals, eight have been scored in the last five. To balance it out they were against teams who attack and leave gaps, whereas I can’t see Poyet’s men being so open.

Danny Ings has been like a new signing for them and has scored seven goals since his return from injury and three in his last four away games. He may well be worth a bet if you are looking for a goalscorer wager.

 

Soccer picks
As much as Sunderland need to banish this tag as the draw specialists, it’s hard to look past it. Losing simply isn’t an option here for the home team, if results go against them they will be in the bottom three, so why would Poyet risk losing and go for the win? I expect a tight first half and if gets to the hour mar and it is still level, both will start to accept a point.

So, I fancy a draw 3.3 (23/10) and for a bit more value the draw and under 2.5 goals at 4.0 (3/1) for my soccer picks.

Free soccer pick: Draw and under 2.5 goals 4.0 (3/1)

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