Pick Defending Champions In Saturday's Copa America Quarter Finals

Nikki Adams

Friday, June 17, 2016 7:51 PM GMT

Can Mexico dispatch defending champions Chile in the quarterfinals? We weigh in on this highly anticipated billing and offer up choice soccer picks.

Mexico second overall faves
Mexico’s stock in outright betting markets improved behind a solid group account in which they went undefeated to clinch top spot. They are now trading as the second overall favourites (jointly with Colombia) to triumph in Copa America Centenario, matched on +600 future soccer odds to win outright or thereabouts depending on your choice sportsbook. Mexico certainly have form and momentum going into the knockouts, but here are those soccer bettors that would suggest their odds are overly generous considering the steep competition contained in their section of the draw. Defending champions Chile and tournament favorites Argentina are in their path to the final, overcoming the pair is going to a tough ask.

Mexico’s merit in the outright market is sure to be tested from the first hurdle when they take on defending champions Chile. Surprisingly, though, they are favoured to win in match betting markets with several sports betting outlets, albeit they are priced just above EVEN money. You’ll find Mexico trading anywhere from +150 to +168 soccer odds to win in 90 minutes or thereabouts. Several sportsbooks, however, install Mexico as the slight underdogs. For example, Heritage is offering a Mexico win at +180 soccer odds while serving up Chile as the +150 favourites to win in 90 minutes.

Mexico burst out of the gates in their opener, reeling off three goals in a 3-1 win over Uruguay. They continued that fine attacking form in the second match with a 2-0 win over group minnows Jamaica. In the last round, they took the foot off the pedal somewhat when they succumbed to a 1-1 draw with Venezuela, but a better goal differential played to their advantage as they secured top spot.

 

Chile defense campaign in question
High expectations preceded Chile for their Copa America title defense campaign. Although they are through to the knockouts there are those soccer bettors that have mixed feelings or just left entirely unimpressed by their group account.

Some allowances must be made for falling into the same section as pre-tournament favourites Argentina, naturally. The 2-1 loss to the Albiceleste in their opener wasn’t surprising and it would be disingenuous to suggest it took the shine off of their bid. Where Chile fell short of the mark somewhat was in their second match. An injury-time penalty was needed to beat Bolivia – a side that finished pointless in the competition.  Chile did bounce back in the last lap with a 4-2 win over Panama though.

Given their mixed account, it’s not surprising they are trading at the disadvantage with most sports betting outlets hanging a Chile win on +180 soccer odds or thereabouts all while installing Mexico at the slightly lower price of +150-ish. Still, this isn’t a side to underestimate and their last account in the group stage showed off their attacking potential. Often teams work their way into form in a competition.

 

Match Betting Tips and Soccer Picks:
To all intents and purposes, this is the toughest matchup in the quarterfinals to handicap. Equally, the most anticipated as there is sure to be drama between two sides that have a lot to recommend. As such, it’s appropriately nestled on a tight soccer betting line with the pair trading just a smidgen apart and the draw priced around +220. Easily shading either Mexico or Chile on your soccer picks can be considered a savvy move. Gun-to-head so to speak, we’re leaning towards Chile as the defending champions in the competition to defy the soccer odds –best current line available at bet365 at +190 –  but we’re feeling no joy. It wouldn’t be surprising if Mexico wins, to put it bluntly. So don’t go betting the farm on it.

We can understand most soccer bettors would rather give the match betting markets a swerve given the unpredictability surrounding it. Makes sense. So the best option in that case is probably to back both teams to score at fair value of -110 on your soccer picks.

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Free Soccer Picks: Chile to win at +190, Both Teams to Score at -110
Best Line Offered: at Bet365