Pick Bayern Munich To Continue Upset Spree & Defeat Atletico Madrid

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, April 27, 2016 3:40 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 27, 2016 3:40 PM UTC

Can Atletico Madrid pull off yet another upset? Weigh in on Atleti’s tie with Bayern Munich in Champions League semis to serve up soccer picks ahead of the first leg at the Calderon.

Atletico Madrid vs. Bayern Munich

Atletico Madrid Dangerous Floaters
Atletico Madrid are third overall favourites to triumph in Europe’s top-flight competition, trading behind top favourites Bayern Munich and second favourites Real Madrid, but there are those soccer bettors that see value in Atleti’s odds in outright betting markets. After all, Diego Simeone’s side upset original favourites and defending champions Barcelona over the course of two-legs in the quarterfinals, a feat that proves in no uncertain terms they are dangerous floaters and can take the measure of any club, including, arguably, the best club in the world, Barcelona.  

Inasmuch as the Catalan giants are considered the best club in the world, so to Bayern Munich in the eyes of many soccer bettors. Opinion is split down the middle between the two European heavyweights. That’s why this tie is proving to be the more intriguing tie of the Champions League semi-finals. How Diego Simeone’s side measures up to their second straight heavyweight opponent.


Bayern Munich Top Favourites
Bayern Munich assumed top spot in the Champions League outright betting markets on the heels of Barcelona’s exit, but take nothing away from them. They are quite rightly the top soccer pick in the competition as one of the best teams in Europe, headed up by the highly-sought after Pep Guardiola. Defensively, Bayern Munich are one of the strongest teams on the continent. Offensively they are attacking-minded and can light up at a moment’s notice. Case-and-point: the R16 tie with Juventus when they scored two late goals in the dying minutes to level the tie on aggregate and send it into overtime, only to runaway 4-2 winners at the Allianz Arena (6-4 on aggregate).


The Matchup
By the stats there’s a lot to like about this matchup. Indeed, you could say these two sides matchup better than most would expect in every aspect, from two stellar managers in the dugout to the roster on the field. Atletico Madrid’s defense is as good as Bayern Munich’s defense with the former allowing just 0.46 goals per game and the latter allowing 0.46 goals per game. Atleti might not score as much as the German’s do, but that doesn’t take anything away from their attacking threat which can be thrilling on the counter-attack.

Yet, it’s clear the market tips the scale towards Bayern Munich at the Calderon, installing the visitors as the road favourites at +150 soccer odds, which is a tempting bet on your soccer picks. Atletico Madrid consequently are at the disadvantage, but at + 240 soccer odds they do smack disingenuously underrated. After all, Atleti have lost just three of their last 55 home fixtures, two of which were to Barcelona. Importantly, they have won four straight at home in Europe all to nil and are riding a five-game winning streak across all competitions into this clash. 

By contrast, Bayern Munich, are coming off a 2-2 draw away to Benfica in Europe, marking their second straight away draw after settling on a 2-2 draw to Juventus in the R16. The draw can be backed at +210 soccer odds. Indeed, Bayern’s away record isn’t exactly stellar with three wins and a loss in group action (l. to Arsenal 2-0) and two draws in the knockouts.


Soccer Betting Verdict:
By all accounts, this is the toughest fixture to handicap on our soccer picks and we’re a bit on the fence here.

For our money, we’re looking at Bayern Munich to win at +150 soccer odds on our soccer picks but we also like the look of Atletico Madrid draw no bet at +130. It’s a bit of a dilemma because a strong case can be had for either side winning away given what is at stake in the penultimate round: a spot in the Champions League final and a shot at European glory. Yet, there’s also a strong case for the draw here too given the pair’s individual defensive prowess and the fact that neither side will want to lose the game.

Atleti will be desperate to deny Bayern the away goal. Whichever way you slice this game, it’s sure to be an intriguing clash and, perhaps, one of the best in recent memory. Push comes to shove we’re going with Bayern Munich in the end on our soccer picks.

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Free Soccer Pick: Bayern Munich +158
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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