Pick Arsenal +225 & Under as they Visit Stamford Bridge in EPL Action

Kevin Stott

Monday, September 14, 2015 12:18 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 14, 2015 12:18 PM UTC

With the Blues coming off a loss at Everton, is taking a shot on Arsenal worth the effort here? Let's review the odds and find the best soccer picks on the game.

Odds Overview
Chelsea vs. Arsenal [Saturday 7:45 ET] (NBCSN, NBC Sports Live Extra, (US); BT Sport 1, BT Sport Ultra HD, (UK); 7:45 a.m. ET/4:45 a.m. PT): Defending English Premier League champions and now 17th-place Chelsea (1-1-3, 7 GF-12 GA) welcome their 4th-place neighbors from North London, Arsenal (3-1-1, 5 GF-3 GA), to Stamford Bridge on Saturday for this Matchday 6 English Premier League derby from West London which will be a massive match for the hosts. Oddsmakers here have made Chelsea +140 favorites here over Arsenal (+180) with the Draw priced at +240 (bet365); the Total Goals in this contest set at 2½ with the Over and Under both priced at -120 (Sky Bet). Some Props wagers for this high-profile EPL fixture from Londontown: Both Teams To Score: ‘Yes’ -162, ‘No’ +120 (bet365); and, To Win To Nil: Chelsea +380, Arsenal +475 (BetVictor).


Arsenal FC
Arsenal (2-0-0 on Road 3 GF-1 GA) always seems to be much maligned by fans and the press, but the Gunners and long-time Manager Arsène Wenger always seem to be in the thick of things and seem to avoiding mega-funks like some other Premier League clubs. (Wink-wink, nod-nod.) Acquiring GK Petr Cech over the Summer Transfer Window gave Arsenal something it could really use—an elite Goalkeeper and one it could plug in and end all the talking and looking and scouting and wasting of Time in the form of EPL Seasons. And by getting the Czech wonder, the Gunners also hurt the GK depth of rival Chelsea who had to be insane letting Cech go cross town. So far, the Gunners are playing low-scoring games as the attack has failed to really get into a flow yet, but the presence of Cech has made this sputtering all the easier and the Gunners find themselves in 4th place heading in here, and in a position where they can really do some psychological damage to the host Blues. But the big question here is, is this one worth betting, and if so what’s the best soccer pick? On the attack, Arsenal is led by Alexis Sánchez (Anytime Goalscorer, +220, 888sport), Olivier Giroud (+200), Danny Welbeck (+290), Theo Walcott (+250), Mesut Özil, Aaron Ramsey and the underrated Santi Cazorla, and this should play out like other Gunners games with minimal quality attempts and build-ups from both sides, even with Chelsea seemingly being so desperate. Watch Walcott.


Chelsea FC
Chelsea (0-0-1 Home, 7 GF-12 GA last season) went unbeaten at Home here at Stamford Bridge last season but that was then and this is now and this Roster the Blues currently have could present real problems all season-long, with some aging players like 31-year-old D Branislav Ivanovic—who has regularly been beaten on the flanks so far this season, losing more than a step in the Offseason—and 28-year-old MF Cesc Fàbregas who often plays like he’s 38 and makes the Defensive MF pairing with  Nemanja Matic now a weakness as well as some other royal blue duds that will leave fans disappointed. Losing club legends Didier Drogba (MLS, Montreal Impact), Frank Lampard (MLS, NYCFC) and Cech (Arsenal) and missing talented club physio Eva Carneiro—for the wrongest of all reasons—has left this tired team hollow and some doubting the moves of its ego-driven Manager José Mourinho. The Blues have failed to get into any kind of decent flow on Offense also, with playmaker Eden Hazard (+210 Anytime Goalscorer, 888sport) and prolific scorer Diego Costa (1 goal; +187) both in major funks. New-signee Pedro (Barcelona), César Azpilicueta, Oscar, Matic and loanee Radamel Falcao (AS Monaco) are Chelsea’s other goal scorers, but this season has started off in horrific fashion with the Relegation Zone nipping at the Blues toes and talk of a repeat championship now laughable.


Series Trends and Best Betting Approaches:
Of note: Arsenal will be playing Dinamo Zagreb on Wednesday in its Group F UEFA Champions League opener in Maksimir, Croatia (FS2, 2:45 p.m. ET/11:45 a.m. PT), while Chelsea will be hosting Maccabi Tel Aviv in its Group G opener here at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday (FSN, 2:45 p.m. ET/11:45 a.m. PT). Also of note: This one starts early, especially if you live in the Pacific Time Zone (4:45 a.m.) and even coffee can’t help an R.E.M. escapade. Overall in English Premier League play, Arsenal is 70-52-55 (252 GF-232 GA) overall lifetime against Chelsea in all competitions and the Gunners are a respectable 25-25-28 (100 GF-103 GA) here at Stamford Bridge in EPL play.In the L4 EPL meetings in West London, the Blues are an unbeaten 2-2-0 against the Gunners (8 GF-0 GA), but two of those matches were 0-0 draws.
This one should be a chess match with minimal excitement and scoring attempts, and even with the soccer odds adjusted, it seems there is value with Arsenal, while the Under (2½ +105, BetVictor) would be the only big straight (1 unit-type) play here. For those bettors seeking some monster value, think about the (Arsenal) To Win To Nil prop, which is priced as high as +475 right now (888sport). Even though this seems like a must-win situation for Chelsea, the Blues can’t just turn it on after this sluggish start and the only hope would be for Mourinho to start players like Pedro, Loïc Rémy (+190) and Douglas. Look for legend Cech—who has three straight shutouts (0-0, 1-0, 2-0) in Premier League play—to register the Clean Sheet here, break the Premier League record, hurt the feelings of his former Chelsea teammates and help the Underdog bettors win this one at Stamford Bridge on Saturday in a familiar setting for the big 33-year-old in a very dramatic game in which it seems a player like Walcott may get the lone tally for Arsenal.

Predicted Final Score: Chelsea 0 Arsenal 1

English Premier League Soccer Pick: Under 2½ +105 & Arsenal +225 (William Hill)

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