Pad Your Wallet With These MLS Week 17 Free Picks

Kevin Stott

Thursday, June 30, 2016 4:17 PM GMT

Let’s look at the nine matches in our weekly Soccer betting thumbnail sketches for the MLS weekend and try to come up with some solid picks for our loyal SBR soccer fans. 

Chicago Fire vs. San Jose Earthquakes
Can the San Jose Earthquakes 5-7-4 (19 GF-19 GA) win their first Road match of the MLS Regular Season? No better place than Toyota Park in Bridgeview, Illinois on Friday night (UniMás, MLS Live, Univision Deportes USA, CSN-California, My50 Chi) to try to find out and no better team than the 10th-place (Eastern Conference) Chicago Fire (2-5-7, 14 GF-20 GA) to face.

And with star Striker Chris Wondolowski (7 goals) likely returning to the Quakes from the USMNT after playing in the recently wrapped Copa América Centenario, Kennedy Igboananike (4 goals), David Accam (4 goals) and the Fire (2-3-2 at Home, 8 GF-8 GA) will surely be tested by San Jose (0-4-4, 8 GF-15 GA on Road), who currently sit in 8th-place in the West. And one part of this handicap is weighing in the strength of the Western Conference compared to the Eastern Conference, and looking at San Jose in the Draw No Bet marketplace seems wise as it will provide both some perceived Value (+127, Marathon) and Security (you won’t Lose your bet if there’s a Draw).

The Weather in Bridgeview on Friday night calls for Clear conditions, a Low of 58°, NNE Winds of 10-15 mph, so no big thing. Trend-wise, the Earthquakes are 3-2-1 (W-D-L) in their L6 vs. the Fire (LLWDLL) and the Over is 6-2 in the L8 in this series, W3 straight with the Both Team To Score (‘Yes’) prop bet having W4 in a row. There have been 26 goals in the L8 meetings (3.25 gpg). This is a spot in which the Quakes (WDDLDD)—who will lose 2 Hours flying east from PDT to CDT—can definitely win their first game and the BTTS (‘Yes’) here looks golden.

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Final Score Prediction: Fire 1 Earthquakes 2
Free MLS Picks: Both Teams To Score (‘Yes’) -133 at BetVictor, Over 2½ -117 at Bet365, Earthquakes Draw No Bet +127 at Marathon

 

Real Salt Lake vs. DC United
Real Salt Lake (8-3-5, 27 GF-26 GA) has shut out DC United (5-5-6, 16 GF-16 GA) the L2 times these two clubs have met in the Beehive State (3-0, 1-0), and the last time they met (in DC), there were goal, goals, goals, Elvis as DC United rolled RSL, 6-4 at RFK Stadium last Aug. 1. The Over is 3-2 in the L5 in this inter-conference series in which the Home team is a spotless 5-0-0 and a deeper dive reveals the Home club is unbeaten in the L16 meetings—you read it right reader—with the lone Road win in this MLS series coming in 2005 when DCU won here in Sandy, 3-1.

So the Home team is 13-4-1 lifetime in this series and a seeming advantage for bettors of the Home side. And it’s easy to see when the two teams are so far apart geographically as well as having a 2-Hour Time Zone Difference (EDT to MDT). And with Yura Movsisyan (6 goals), Joao Plata (5 goals) and Juan Manuel “El Burrito” Martínez (5 goals) and vet leader Kyle Beckerman possibly back from his stint for the USMNT in the aforementioned Copa América, this looks like a good fun Friday night for the homeboys and Home fans at Rio Tinto. The type of game that could be 0-0 at Half.

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Final Score Prediction: Real Salt Lake 2 DC United 0
Free MLS Pick: Real Salt Lake -137 at William Hill

 

Montreal Impact vs. New England Revolution
Impact (5-6-4, 22 GF-20 GA) play host to Lee Nguyen (4 goals) and the New England Revolution (4-7-5, 21 GF-28 GA) on Saturday in the day’s first match on the betting board. Montreal is 2-2-1 in the L5 meetings in this series (NE 0-1 MTL, MTL 3-0 NE, NE 0-0 MTL, MTL 2-2 NE, NE 2-1) having scored in 4 of those games.

The Impact have been a Draw machine of late with 4 in their L6 and with the Revs just 1-3-4 (10 GF-19 GA) on the Road and Montreal coming off a 2-2 Draw to Sporting Kansas City here last weekend, this seems like a match Montreal should win but it seems they just can’t be trusted of late. Small lean Under but Pass. Ignacio Piatti (8 goals), Didier Drogba (5 goals), Dominic Oduro (4 goals) and the Montreal

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Final Score Prediction: Impact 1 Revolution 0
Free MLS Picks: None

 

Toronto FC vs. Seattle Sounders
Sebastian Giovinco (8 goals) and Toronto FC (5-4-6, 17 GF-18 GA) play host to the Seattle Sounders (5-1-9, 13 GF-19 GA) and Jordan Morris (5 goals) on Saturday night (MLS Live, TSN2) in a game in which the visitors should have their leader, Clint Dempsey (2 goals) back after his service with the USMNT during the Copa America, won by Chile over Argentina in a PK Shootout for the second straight year after a 0-0 Regulation and AET reality, prompting the 28-year-old Lionel Messi to say he’s done with La Albiceleste and national play.

With the Sounders (1-1-5, 6 GF-12 GA on Road) so suspect away from home and with only 6 goals in 7 Road matches, this seems like a good Under look until you see the Over has W4 straight in this series with the Road team winning 3 of 5 (SEA 2-1 TOR, SEA 1-2 TOR, TOR 1-2 SEA, SEA 3-1 TOR, TOR 0-1 SEA). Site matter and Toronto is a long, long way from the Emerald City and with the Travel and 3-Hour Time Difference from PDT to EDT for the Sounders (LLLWLLL), this a tough spot even with Deuce back but Toronto (2-2-1, 6 GF-5 GA) is no bargain at Home. As you can see, the Both Teams To Score (‘Yes’) prop bet has W4 in this series.

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Final Score Prediction: Toronto FC 2 Sounders 1
Free MLS Pick: Toronto FC -133 at Marathon

 

Houston Dynamo vs. Philadelphia Union
The L6 meetings in this series (PHI 2-0 HOU, PHI 0-0 HOU, HOU 2-0 PHI, PHI 0-0 HOU, PHI 0-1 HOU, HOU 1-0 PHI) has seen the Under W6 with the Union scoring just 2 goals in that span—both in the last meeting, a 2-0 Win in the city of Brotherly Love and Robot Killers on Sept. 20, 2015—while Will Bruin and Houston have scored just 4 times in the 6 games and been shutout 3 times, while Philadelphia tops them, being blanked 5 times over that span.

Five Clean Sheets in 6 appearances against Houston, Philly? Come come now. Of Being and Nothingness here in this series and whereas the Union are playing good and are usually a good look in the BTTS (‘Yes’) marketplace, here in the Lone Star State on Saturday night (MLS Live, The Comcast Network), it’s unsure if Chris Pontius (6 goals), CJ Sapong (5 goals) Roland Alberg (5 goals) and the Union can muster a goal and the Under sems like the most logical look. There are better matches to bet on this Holiday (USA) weekend.

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Final Score Prediction: Dynamo 2 Union 0
Free MLS Picks: Under 2½ -108 at Bet365

 

NYCFC vs. New York Red Bulls
This is what you come here for. The games where it seem like you have some kind of an edge, and in this case in many markets if you have the access, it seems this is one of those magical spots. NYCFC (6-6-5, 27 GF-31) and David Villa (11 goals), Thomas McNamara (3 goals), Frank Lampard (2 goals) and Andrea Pirlo will be looking for real Revenge here after getting pasted, 7-0, in the last meeting, earlier this year in The Bronx and The House That Ruth Built.

But Revenge should end up proving to be too hard to exact here on Sunday afternoon (ESPN, MLS Live [US], Sky Sports 1/HD [UK]) as the prolific Bradley Wright-Phillips (9 goals), Mike Grella (6 goals) and the Red Bulls (6-0-2, 17 GF-9 GA at Home) aren’t gonna just let some second-year MLS team win until the time is right. And it isn’t, especially with the Red Bulls recovering after a rocky start. And in the four games these two have played, the Red Bulls are 4-0-0 and have outscored NYCFC, 14-2 in the process (NYCFC 0-7 RBNY, RBNY 2-0 NYCFC, NYCFC 1-3 RBNY, RBNY 2-1 NYCFC). Until further notice.

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Final Score Prediction: Red Bulls 3 NYCFC 2
Free MLS Picks: Red Bulls +130 at 888Sport, Over 2½ -122 at Marathon, Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ -162 at StanJames, Over 3½ +190 ar BetVictor

 

Sporting Kansas City vs. Columbus Crew
The Columbus Crew (3-7-5, 19 GF-22 GA) were in the MLS Cup last year but with Kei Kamara now gone, a 9th-place standing in the Eastern Conference and just 16 points earned, soccer odds are Columbus isn’t going to be playing for the league championship this time around (Crew 30/1 to win MLS Cup, 888sport). But one never really knows in the MLS, where Dregs can suddenly become Darlings in the blink of an eye.

This ain’t La Liga. The L5 meetings in this Eastern Conference series (CLB 3-2 SKC, CLB 1-2 SKC, SKC 2-0 CLB, CLB 0-1 SKC, SKC 3-0 CLB) reveals that Dominic Dwyer (6 goals) and Sporting Kansas City (6-3-8, 16 GF-18 GA) have held the upper hand in this series of late, going 4-0-1 (9-GF-4 GA) with the Crew winning the last meeting last season at Mapfre Stadium in Columbus. With key cog Graham Zusi likely back in the lineup for the hosts after playing for the US in the Copa América Centenario, SKC (4-1-4, 11 GF-11 GA at Home) is the soccer pick here on Sunday (MLS Live, FS1 [US], Sky Sports 1/HD [UK]) despite the milktoast Home mark. Show me a win, SKC.

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Final Score Prediction: Sporting Kansas City 2 Crew 0
Free MLS Pick: Sporting Kansas City -142 at 888Sport

 

Colorado Rapids vs Portland Timbers
The Colorado Rapids (9-5-2, 19 GF-11 GA) have been the big story in the MLS so far this season, and here against defending MLS champs Portland (6-5-6, 28 GF-29 GA), we have maybe the most competitive game on the 10-match slate with the Rapids adding GK Tim Howard (Everton) to the fold to what has been the MLS’s best Defensive side to date and a team which has gone an attention-getting and unbeaten 7-1-0 at Home here at The Dick (12 GF-4 GA).

The L5 times these two have met (POR 4-1 COL, COL 1-2 PR, COL 2-2 POR, POR 2-1 COL, COL 2-0 POR), there has been at least one team which has scored 2 goals and the Over has W4 in games averaging 3.50 gpg but the Rapids (WDWDWD) are much-improved and have the best Record and most points (32) heading into Week 17 action and games played here at the lung-checking Altitude of in the Rocky Mountains have generally gone Under this season.

With Fanendo Adi (9 goals), Diego Valeri (7 goals) and the Timbers (LWDWDW) coming to suburban Denver on the Fourth of July, this is probably one of those sweet matchups best watched and not wagered on. Discipline is what made the US Marines what they are today and lack of it is what ended up killing legends like Elvis Presley, Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin, Jim Morrison, Kurt Cobain and Prince. Recognize the importance of discipline and that making a decision not to do something is an often Wise decision in itself.

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Final Score Prediction: Rapids 1 Timbers 1
Free MLS Picks: None

 

FC Dallas vs. Orlando SC
FC Dallas (9-4-5, 26 GF-24 GA) welcomes 2015 MLS Rookie of the Year Cyle Larin (8 goals), Kevin Molino (6 goals), Kaká (3 goals) and Orlando City (4-8-3, 28 GF-25 GA) to suburban Dallas on Monday night (MLS Live, TV27, TWCSC-TX) in a big inter-conference date for both sides with FCD in Dallas in 2nd place in the West and OCSC in 6th in the East. The hosts looks pretty good this year with Forwards Tesho Akindele (5 goals) and Michael Barrios (5 goals) are still seeking their first MLS title (FC Dallas 12/1 to win MLS Cup, Bet365) and are in a nice little groove, going an unbeaten 6-3-0 at Home (16 GF-6 GA).

These two teams have only met once ever with Orlando SC (LWDDDW) expanding into the MLS last year with FCD (WWDDLW) winning 2-0 at the Citrus Bowl a year ago in the Sunshine State, and this seems like one of those handicaps in which the Site will be the biggest thing with OCSC (OCSC 35/1 to win MLS Cup, NetBet) having never played here in its short history and FCD unbeaten at Home in 9 games. A decent edge to the homeboys and definitely worth a small shot in my eyes.

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Final Score Prediction: FC Dallas 2 Orlando SC 1
Free MLS Picks: FC Dallas -116 at Marathon, Both Teams To Score (‘Yes’) -137 at StanJames

 

LA Galaxy vs. Vancouver Whitecaps
The LA Galaxy (5-8-3, 23 GF-18 GA) should have their two biggest gummers back in the fold for this one with Gyasi Zardes (4 goals) done with the USMNT in the Copa América and Robbie Keane (4 goals) done with his service with his native Republic of Ireland in the UEFA EURO 2016. The L5 meetings in this series reveals (VAN 0-0 LA, LA 0-1 VAN, VAN 2-0 LA, LA 2-0 VAN, VAN 2-2 LA) that Bruce Arena’s Galaxy haven’t scored against Vancouver (3-0-5, 14 GF-20 GA) since 2004 and that there hasn’t been much scoring at all of late (1 goal in 2 games). So with the Whitecaps Pedro Morales (6 goals) and Kekuta Manneh (4 goals) and the Galaxy’s Giovani dos Santos (6 goals), Mike Magee (5 goals), Zardes and Keane, it seems like there should be goals, goals, goals and much fireworks in Lalaland on the Fourth of July on Monday night (FS1, MLS Live, Univision), but the Trends hint at a low-scoring chess match with the first goal (if there is one) possibly being the game-winner. Best watched as LA (+100, Bet365) just doesn’t provide enough perceived value, the club hasn’t been playing that great lately and it may take some time for Zardes and Keane to assimilate back into the LA lineup.

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Final Score Prediction: LA Galaxy 1 Whitecaps 1
Free MLS Pick: Both Teams To Score -162 (‘Yes’) at BetVictor

 

MLS BEST PICKS FRIDAY: Union-Earthquakes Both Teams To Score (‘Yes’) -133 at BetVictor, Union-Earthquakes Over 2½ -117 at Bet365, Earthquakes Draw No Bet +127 at Marathon

MLS BEST PICK SATURDAY: Toronto FC -133 over Sounders at Marathon

MLS BEST PICKS SUNDAY: Red Bulls +130 over NYCFC at 888Sport, RBNY-NYCFC Over 2½ -122 at Marathon, RBNY-NYCFC Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ -162 at StanJames, Sporting Kansas City -142 over Crew at 888Sport

MLS BEST PICK MONDAY: FC Dallas -116 over Orlando at Marathon