If the superfight between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao is going to be among the biggest one-day events in sports betting history, then we need some Super Bowl-style props mixed into our boxing odds.
We’ve created a monster. The May 2 ultra-megafight between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao is expected to bring in upwards of $30 million in handle for Las Vegas sportsbooks – and that could turn out to be a very conservative estimate. We might not see quite as much action as we would for the Super Bowl ($100 million and beyond in Nevada alone), but then again, we might.
That means we’re going to need a metric boatload of prop bets. When you’ve got a sporting event like Mayweather-Pacquiao attracting millions of casual fans, you know the focus will be on entertainment, just like it is at the Super Bowl. So everyone here at SBR has pitched in to come up with a recommended list of Mayweather-Pacquiao props. These are unofficial boxing odds, but we think this is a good place to start. Let’s riggidy-roll…
Before we ring the bell, let’s take a quick look at the official boxing odds (and the total for rounds fought) that are already on the market at Bovada, where Mayweather is the –225 favorite as we go to press:
Rounds fought 11.5 (OVER –300, UNDER +200)
Will it go the distance? YES –285, NO +225
Total PPV buys 3.15 million (OVER –250, UNDER +170)
Slim pickings thus far, but you can already see how the entertainment aspect is creeping into the mix. It’s easy enough to forecast this fight going to a decision; the PPV buys are a little tougher, given the Interwebs and pirate streams and all, but Mayweather’s fight against Oscar De La Hoya in 2007 took in 2.7 million buys. We’re expecting lots more this time around.
The Middle Rounds
Now comes our 1-2 combo of entertainment-based props and boxing-based props. We’ll start with the entertainment, since that’s what most casual fans are interested in.
The ‘Money’ man loves an entourage and a celebrity buddy, so who will walk the walk before Floyd talks the talk?
Who will accompany Floyd Mayweather for the ring walk?
Justin Bieber –500
Miley Cyrus +200
50 Cent +2500
Warren Buffet +600
Lil Wayne +160
The MGM Grand is going to THE place to be seen on May 2nd, with ringside tickets only available for the rich and famous.
Which celebrity will be the first to be shown in attendance?
Sean “Diddy” Combs +600
Mike Tyson +1200
Don Cheadle +1800
LL Cool J +2000
Liev Schreiber +1400
Jack Nicholson +1750
Michael Strahan +900
Emily VanCamp +1100
Heidi Klum +880
Owen Wilson +2600
2 Chainz +1500
50 Cent +3000
Any other –2500
With so much money flying around and two of this generation’s greatest fighters squaring up, the most important man in the ring will be the man in the middle.
Who will be named the referee of the bout?
Kenny Bayless –200
Tony Weeks +110
Any other –105
Who will sing the national anthem?
Dionesia Pacquiao +1500
Any other –3000
How many times will a mouthpiece fall out and hit the canvas?
2 or more +350
The mega-money fight is a duel broadcast between Showtime and HBO, so who will be better big fight callers? Who will get the scores correct? Who will be the big name ex fighters interviewed and how about this one?
Who will be first to conduct an in-ring interview of the winner?
Jim Gray –120
Max Kellerman +100
Manny Pacquiao has already recruited God on his side, so the Almighty will surely be on Pacman’s lips should he win, but what about Floyd?
Who will the winning fighter thank first?
The losing fighter +400
His team +250
None of the above –110
The trainers have history with plenty of bad blood when Pacquiao beat Mayweather Sr trained Ricky Hatton and ever since they have both been waging war with words. Floyd Sr even laid down some rhyme:
“Freddie the joke coach Roach…who wouldn’t dare to approach. He’s just blowing smoke, with no hope. Manny moved from first-class to coach by training with the Roach!”
Will Freddie Roach and Floyd Mayweather Sr. shake hands or physically embrace post-fight?
We’ve seen both Justin Bieber and Lil Wayne come out with Mayweather at the same time, so we’ll need to work around that somehow. Otherwise, these are exactly the kind of prop bet categories you can expect for May 2.
Now let’s move on to the sweet science itself. Here’s our first crack at laying down some boxing odds for the props market:
Away from the glitz and glamour the bell will go and it will be the two best fighters of their generation in the squared circle, so what about some fight related props.
We have the offensive speed and skill of the Philippine hero against the superb defensive quality of the pound-for-pound King. So who scores the points?
Which fighter will land more power shots according to CompuBox?
Which fighter will land a higher % of power shots according to CompuBox?
Floyd Mayweather has frustrated so many fighters with his brilliant ability to avoid punches, leaving his opponent exasperated. Will Manny resort to dirty tactics? He’s a statesman surely not!
Will a point be deducted from either fighter due to penalty?
In 2001 a boxer called Carlos Hernandez put Pretty Boy Mayweather down for the first time in his career, while Pacman has not only touched the canvas, but also knocked clean out. So how about some knockdown specials.
Will an official knockdown be scored?
If a knockdown is scored, who scores it?
Manny Pacquiao –150
Floyd Mayweather +130
If Pacquiao scores a knockdown, will he win the fight?
If Mayweather scores a knockdown, will he win the fight?
There’s some good stuff here. Personally, I’d be all over NO for a point getting deducted. And I suspect Pacquiao will land more power shots, although Mayweather is a good bet to be more accurate with his throws. Let us know what you think in the comments section below, and we’ll see how the boxing odds unfold between now and May 2.