One of boxing’s biggest events of the year lands in Macau, China on Saturday night as the legendary Manny Pacquiao takes on challenger Chris Algieri. In this title tilt we look at the sharpest prop plays and boxing odds in order to make our boxing picks tomorrow night.
Method of Victory
While the boxing odds suggest that Manny Pacquiao will floor the lightly tested WBO Light Welterweight champion, we note that recent history suggests otherwise. Pacquiao has not notched a KO in over five years and since that day in November of 2009, when he TKO’ed Miguel Cotto to win the crown he is defending on Saturday night, the Filipino sensation has won five decisions and lost two. Closing in on 36-years-old Pacquiao will be almost four inches shorter than his opponent and be handicapped with a five inch reach disadvantage.
Chris Algieri comes into this fight as a long shot if you take time to peruse the boxing odds offered by the offshore sportsbooks. As of this writing Pacquiao is -750 to retain his WBO Welterweight belt while you can get a hefty return on Algieri at +525 in boxing odds. But if you like the underdog and decide to go the proposition route while ruling out Algieri knocking the champ out or drawing at the end of 12 rounds then you can get an even higher pay out on your money. As of this moment Algieri will get you back +1200 at WilliamHill.com to win by either decision or technical decision.
Like virtually all fighters, time is no friend to those who practice the sweet science. Pacquiao is not the fabled fighter from five years ago when boxing fans began clamoring for a super fight with Floyd Mayweather. That fight never came about and has lost much of its luster after Pacquiao was defeated by Timothy Bradley in a controversial split decision and was then KO’ed by Juan Manuel Marquez. He then rattled off two unanimous decisions over Brandon Rios and won the rematch with Timothy Bradley in his last fight in April of this year. But now he faces a fighter who is undefeated in 20 fights with a sizeable reach and height advantage. We are going to take the generous boxing odds that the line-makers are giving us and side the challenger.
Boxing Prop Pick: Chris Algieri +1200 at WilliamHill.com.
In keeping with our assertion that this fight will go the distance and Pacquiao will be unable to knock the challenger out, we are therefore sticking to our predication that this is going to the judge’s scorecards. Algieri has the reach to keep Pacquiao from getting inside where he does all his lethal damage while Algieri should be able to snipe from afar using his signature jab and obvious athleticism. I like this one to go the distance and even if Algieri doesn’t score an upset we can still cash on this prop and the boxing odds associated with it.
Boxing Prop Pick: Over 10 ½ rounds (-110) at Ladbrokes.com.
Pacquiao to be Knocked Down?
PaddyPower.com is hanging a boxing betting line of +1000 that Manny Pacquiao will get knocked down in this fight. We are talking 10-1 that the champ will hit the canvas but not necessarily get knocked out as a result. It’s a longshot to be sure but it’s one worthy of a few bucks in this writer’s estimation. Algieri does possess knockout power and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the champ hit the deck at least once during this fight. Okay, it would surprise me but it wouldn’t shock me. And if the oddsmakers are giving me 10-1 then who am I to refuse?
Boxing Prop Pick: Pacquiao gets knocked down +1000 at PaddyPower.com.