Pacquiao-Mayweather Betting Odds: Is a Rematch on the Horizon?

Jason Lake

Thursday, April 23, 2015 8:00 PM GMT

Thursday, Apr. 23, 2015 8:00 PM GMT

When you get a fight this big, why not a sequel? The boxing odds say it’s 2-1 that Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao will have a rematch within a year. The chances might be even greater than that.

They won’t even greenlight a movie anymore unless it’s part of a franchise. So what are the chances we see a rematch of the “Fight of the Century” between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao? According to the boxing odds we’re looking at as we go to press, the chances are 2-1 it’ll happen within a year.

Interesting. This is one of those boxing props that’s difficult to quantify in a meaningful way, so there’s no telling if 2-1 is a bargain or not. But if you look at the circumstances of this fight, it’s easy enough to talk yourself into believing it’s a deadbolt lock we’ll see Mayweather and Pacquiao touch gloves again – and soon.

Shop for the Best Lines: Pacquiao vs. Mayweather Betting Odds Comparison Guide

Save Some of That for the Sequel
Let’s start with the most obvious factor: Cash money. A rematch between Mayweather and Pacquiao would generate another massive payday for both fighters, assuming that they don’t totally botch the May 2 fight somehow. That could happen. Maybe not in the ring, but at the business end; getting these two camps on the same page took years, and at press time, Pacquiao’s people still haven’t officially signed the contract, and tickets still haven’t been sold.

We’re not too concerned about that. However messy this whole business has been for both sides, once all the groundwork has been laid for the Fight of the Century to take place, getting the troops together again for Mayweather-Pacquiao II doesn’t require nearly as much time and effort. That’s part of what makes sequels so cost-effective, even if the box office is smaller the second time around.

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Money’s Revenge
This is assuming the two stars of the show want to come back and do it again. Which brings us to arguably the most important factor for this boxing prop, aside from the money itself: Mayweather has exactly one fight left on his contract after this one. He says he wants that fight to take place in September, after which he’ll retire. If so, that would take care of the “within a year” part of the bet.

That leaves the rematch part. Pacquiao is under contract through the end of 2016, so if he’s not injured, he’ll be available. Everything else beyond that is conjecture. If Mayweather loses on May 2, fighting Pacquiao again to “reclaim his honor” makes some sense. According to Pacquiao’s trainer, Freddie Roach, Mayweather was originally insisting for a rematch clause to be put into the contract for the Fight of the Century. That didn’t end up happening, and Roach might not be telling us the truth, but it does add fuel to the fire.

 

Pac-Man 2: The New Adventures
So what if Mayweather wins on May 2? Again, assuming Pacquiao doesn’t make a total fool out of himself – and those who know about boxing betting realize that’s highly unlikely – there should be enough interest in a rematch to make it viable. Marcos Maidana earned himself a second payday against Mayweather last September with a good showing in their first fight. Jose Luis Castillo did the same back in 2002, albeit in a much closer encounter that arguably could have gone either way.

Win or lose, Pacquiao hasn’t shied away from rematches in his career. He fought Erik Morales three times, winning all three. He fought Juan Manuel Marquez four times between 2004 and 2012, going 2-1-1. Most recently, Pacquiao avenged his controversial 2012 split-decision loss to Timothy Bradley Jr., handily winning on all the judges’ score cards in last April’s rematch. None of those fights happened back-to-back like Mayweather-Maidana, but that’s almost certainly not by design, and assuming Mayweather is serious about his retirement plans, all this has to happen by September if it’s going to happen at all.

Special update: The two camps have reportedly agreed on the contract as we go to press.

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