On Tuesday, Will it be a Blue Wave or Will Democrats Cave?

Kim MacCormack

Sunday, November 4, 2018 10:36 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 4, 2018 10:36 PM UTC

The candidates' names are on the ballots, but many of the votes already cast or on Tuesday will be a referendum on President Trump and his policies.

Election Day is finally upon the United States – and not a moment too soon.

Tensions and rhetoric are high, especially in the last two weeks which saw pipe bombs sent to Democratic leaders and CNN, a mass shooting that left 11 dead at a synagogue in Pittsburgh, a large group of migrants walking toward the U.S. border from Central and South America and relentless finger-pointing, name calling and casting of blame.

This election will be one of two things: an affirmation of President Donald Trump and his policies or the installation of a wave of Democratic candidates that could alter the balance of power in Congress, putting a check on the executive branch.

The President is working hard to make sure its former, crisscrossing the country hitting the stump to bolster Republican candidates’ chances. President Obama, too, has hit the campaign trail to get out the vote for this long-touted Democratic blue wave.

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Don't hide your head in the sand like an ostrich, #VOTE!

(PS: ostriches don't actually hide their heads in the sand...but you should still vote.) pic.twitter.com/yfb8S2hGhT

— WitmerLab (@WitmerLab) November 4, 2018
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Voter turnout will be the key in an election that will have many holding their breath for the outcome that will set the tone for the political landscape in the two years heading to the 2020 presidential vote.

Add to the mix, many states picking new governors.

Interest is high, and Bovada and 5Dimes are among several sportsbooks with odds on U.S. midterm and gubernatorial races. Ladbrokes and Paddy Power, which carries odds on elections in the United Kingdom, also has odds on U.S. races.

On Bovada, bets are being taken on the majority outcome of the 2018 U.S. House of Representatives with odds slight better than two weeks ago that the Democratic party will flip the chamber; Odds now stand at -300 on a Democratic majority, +200 Republican majority and +10000 no overall majority.

In the U.S. Senate Election, the most recent polls have made odds for the GOP retaining the Senate stronger. The odds are -600 on a Republican majority, +850 a Democratic majority and +600 no overall majority.

Updated odds on select congressional and gubernatorial bets at Bovada to consider are:

  • 2018 U.S Senate Election winner – Beto O’Rourke (D) +300 and Sen. Ted Cruz (R) -400. Yes, polls are tightening and both candidates are oozing confidence but it still an uphill climb for O’Rourke to oust Cruz from the Senate. A surge in early voting – nearly 5 million -- fuels both candidate’s hope for victory, but Cruz has the momentum with 97 percent of Cruz supporters telling pollsters their minds and votes cannot be changed, which doesn’t bode well for O’Rourke.
  • 2018 U.S Senate Election winner – North Dakota: Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) +375 and Kevin Cramer (R) -550. Things continue to look bleak for Heitkamp whose opponent maintains a healthy lead over the incumbent. She long been an underdog but this is likely too big a hole for her to fly out of. Cramer for the win.
  • 2018 U.S Senate Election winner – Florida: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) -160 and Rick Scott (R) +130. In polling, this remains a dead-heat contest, but oddsmakers have confidence the incumbent will be re-elected. We believe a Nelson victory is contingent on gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum drawing out the electorate and the senator riding his coattails to a win.
  • 2018 U.S Senate Election winner – Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) -115 and Josh Hawley (R) -115. Sen. McCaskill, long thought to be vulnerable to keep her seat in the Senate, sees herself tied with her opponent going into the last two days of the campaign and the oddsmakers have tightened their odds as well. McCaskill is hitting Hawley with questions on this tenure as Missouri’s attorney general while President Trump will be in the state Monday night for an eleventh-hour rally to get Hawley over the finish line.
  • 2018 Gubernatorial winner – Georgia: Stacey Abrams (D) +130 and Brian Kemp (R) -160. The odds do not reflect the dead-heat polls in this hotly contested race that in its last days has seen Oprah Winfrey knocking on doors for Abrams and Kemp getting high-profile support from both President Trump and Vice President Pence. News breaks in this race daily, if not hourly. At this publishing, Kemp charges Democrats with an attempted voter registration hack that Abrams called a political stunt. Also, both the Kemp and Abrams campaigns denounced on Sunday a racist robocall targeting Georgia voters. This will be the race to watch on Tuesday, and we think Georgia may elect it’s first black female governor.
  • 2018 Gubernatorial winner – Florida: Andrew Gillum (D) -220 and Ron DeSantis (R) +180. There is going down to the wire and then there is this race where it’s a whisper of a difference between being the new governor of Florida or sitting on a beach on Wednesday trying to figure out where it went wrong. The big dogs – Trump and Obama – have rallied voters for DeSantis and Gillum respectively where polling falls well within the margin of error. We honestly can’t pick this race, even though oddsmakers seem to think its Gillum for the win. Tuesday can’t come soon enough for Florida Man or Florida Woman.
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