Norwich City vs. Bournemouth: EPL Week 5 Odds, Picks & Predicted Final Score

Kevin Stott

Monday, September 7, 2015 2:35 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 7, 2015 2:35 PM UTC

Two of three recently promoted teams in the English Premier League meet Saturday in Matchday 5 play when Norwich City welcomes Bournemouth AFC. Check inside our free pick for this fixture.

Norwich City vs Bournemouth AFC
Although these two clubs have not played in England’s top flight of soccer, the last three meetings in this series have seen both of the teams to score  ‘Yes’ prop hit, so does that mean we can expect goals here, or could this be a low-scoring affair like the total (Over/Under) soccer odds suggest? Let’s dissect this weekend's match and see if we can come up with a logical soccer pick here.


Odds Overview
Norwich City vs. Bournemouth [Saturday, September 12 at 10 a.m. ET] (NBC Sports Live Extra, Premier League Extra Time Channel 3 (USA): This battle of newly promoted English Premier League sides sees host Norwich City (1-1-2, 5 GF-8 GA) welcoming Bournemouth (1-1-2, 5 GF-6 GA) to Carrow Road in Norwich, Norfolk on Saturday in Matchday 5 as play resumes after a one-week international break. Oddsmakers here have made host Norwich City -117 favorites here with Bournemouth priced at +200 and the Draw set at +240 (bet365). The Total Goals here has been set at 2½ with the Over priced at -110 and the Under at -120 (Heritage). Some other Props for this Matchday 5 fixture from Norwich: Both Teams To Score: Yes -137, No +100 (bet365); To Win To Nil: Norwich City +300, Bournemouth +400 (William Hill); and, Draw No Bet: Norwich City -153, Bournemouth +110 (bet365).


AFC Bournemouth
The arrival of AFC Bournemouth (1-0-1 Away, 4 GF-4 GA) to the Premier League is such a wonderful story, but now that the Cherries are up in England’s top flight of soccer, the real work starts. Entering Matchday 5, Bournemouth (+225 to be Relegated, bet365) and 37-year-old Manager Eddie Howe have a couple of new problems with which to deal in the injuries to record-signee Tyrone Mings (Knee) and winger Max Gradel (Knee). Mings will reportedly be missing the entire season while Gradel is expected to be out for 6 months, so, the Cherries are probably a bit sour heading into this affair. On the attack for Bournemouth—which scored a prolific 115 goals last season in winning the Championship and usually employs a 4-4-1-1 tactical formation—is talented striker Callum Wilson (4 goals; +205, Bet365), Yann Kermorgant (+187), Matt Ritchie (+375), Harry Arter (+500), Andrew Surman (+400) and Marc Pugh (1 goal, +450), the latter who has the Cherries only other goal besides Wilson. In Goal, Bournemouth features Artur Boruc (obtained from Southampton) and Howe has a number of other versatile new signees like Sylvain Distin (Everton, +550)—who’s the same age (37) as he is—Christian Atsu (Chelsea), GK Adam Federici (Southampton) and Joshua King (Blackburn). The losses of Mings and Gradel will be an issue for this South Coast club.


Norwich City FC 
Norwich City (1-0-1, 3 GF-4 GA) and Manager Alex Neil are as game of a side as Bournemouth is, and both clubs truly deserve their promotions after their performances last season in the Championship where they finished 1st and 3rd. In Goal, the Canaries feature John Ruddy and so far this season, Norwich City (+137 to be Relegated at Pinnacle) has gotten goals from Russell Martin (2 goals, +1050), Nathan Redmond (2 goals, +409) and Steven Whittaker (1 goal) and the Canaries recently signed Democratic Republic of Congo Striker Dieumerci Mbokani on a season-long long from Dinamo Kiev in the Russian Premier League. So, with Mbokani (+200 bet365) and Jerome Cameron (+210), Norwich City has a couple of players with opposing defenses who need to track. When these two sides met last year in the Championship at Bournemouth in Neil’s first game as manager of the Canaries, 10-man Norwich City rallied from a 1-0 deficit to pit the Cherries, 2-1 at Dean Court on 2nd Half goals by the reliable Gary Hooper (+210) and Cameron, who notched the dramatic game-winner in the 80th minute.


Series Trends, Current Form, Betting Conclusions
This is the first-ever meeting between these two clubs in English Premier League play, but Norwich City is 2-2-0 (5 GF-3 GA) lifetime in 4 meetings against Bournemouth (Championship, League Cup). The last time these two played were the two meetings in the Championship last season (2014/15) where Norwich City defeated Bournemouth 2-1 on the Road in Week 25 at in the last actual and aforementioned meeting, while the two sides played to a 1-1 Draw here at Carrow Road in Week 5. The L3 meetings between these two clubs have seen the ‘Yes’ in the Both Teams To Score prop hit, but the small sample size here renders those 4 previous meetings meaningless although with this game being played at Norwich, it must be noted that the Cherries have never beat the Canaries. And how proud would Dr. Seuss be? Here, expect a battle of GKs, likely Boruc vs. Ruddy with maybe 8-12 decent attempts (combined) on goal. Neither team will want to lose this game and this is one of those games on the schedule which looks like a possible Draw, be it 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 or maybe 3-3 if the stars align with Wilson tallying for the visitors and new guy Mbokani possibly getting his first score for the hosts. Bournemouth is coming off a 1-1 Draw with Leicester City on Matchday 4—the Cherries are an unbeaten 2-1-0 in their L3 games in all competitions, outscoring foes, 9-4—while Norwich City was thumped 3-0 at Southampton in its last game on Matchday 4 at St. Mary’s Stadium.


Predicted Final Score: Norwich City 1 Bournemouth 1

English Premier League Soccer Pick: Draw +240 at Bwin.

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