Northcutt vs Marin Props At UFC 200

Jason Lake

Saturday, July 9, 2016 7:13 PM UTC

Saturday, Jul. 9, 2016 7:13 PM UTC

Sage Northcutt has yet to go the distance in the Octagon. The UFC odds say he'll beat Enrique Marin this Saturday, but a quick win would pay out better on the props market.

They're the four most important words in the fight game: Card Subject to Change. Dana White's had to do some shuffling for Saturday's UFC 200 pay-per-view at the new T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. There's no word yet at press time about a substitute for Jon “Bones” Jones is the main event versus Daniel Cormier; it's possible they'll just stick with the remaining four fights on the main card, or maybe they'll promote someone from the preliminary card on Fox Sports 1.

Our vote is for Sage Northcutt. It probably won't happen, though. Northcutt is scheduled to face a relative unknown, Enrique “Wasabi” Marin, in the opening fight of the FS1 prelim card. And Northcutt is coming off a surprise loss to Bryan Barberena (+180) this past January. But there's no question that Northcutt is one of the future stars in this sport. He's also a big –340 favorite on the UFC odds board for Saturday's Lightweight bout.


Von Flue Over the Cuckoo's Nest
It's going to be difficult to bet against Northcutt (7-1 lifetime, 2-1 UFC). He's a special fighter, a 3rd-degree black belt in both taekwondo and kajukenbo. Northcutt is still only 20 years old, but he's already in the Black Belt Magazine Hall of Fame. He went 15-0 in pro kickboxing, and he was 7-0 in MMA before Barbarena surprised him with the rare Von Flue choke.

Northcutt isn't likely to make the same mistake against Marin (8-3 lifetime, 0-1 UFC). The Spaniard has just the one fight in the Octagon, a split-decision loss to Erick Montano (+155) last November at Fight Night 78. They were the last two fighters in the Welterweight bracket of The Ultimate Fighter Latin America 2. It's not fair to call Marin a tomato can; however, from a promotional standpoint, he's cannon fodder for Northcutt.


Sage Advice
But we have something else in mind for your UFC picks. Instead of paying –340 for Northcutt to win, you can go to the props market and pay –215 for Saturday's bout not to go to a decision. None of Northcutt's eight MMA fights made it into the third round. He has four victories by TKO, and another three via submission – Northcutt has a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu to go with his two black belts.

Marin also has five wins (and two losses) by submission, mostly fighting the local circuit back in Spain as a member of Sutemi Fight Academy, who specialize in BJJ. We don't expect him to lay a glove on Northcutt, but we didn't expect Barbarena to, either. Might as well take the safer route and eat less chalk in the process. Enjoy the fights, and may the Octagon be with you.

Free UFC Pick: Fight doesn't go to decision (–215)
Best Line Offered: at YouWager
Record: 7-0 ML, 1-1 Totals, 1-0 Props (+9.50 units)

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