Noble Indy Possibly Getting Lost in Kentucky Derby Shuffle

Kevin Stott

Sunday, April 29, 2018 2:06 AM UTC

Sunday, Apr. 29, 2018 2:06 AM UTC

Now the least talked about of the four Todd Pletcher-trained entrants for Saturday's Kentucky Derby, Noble Indy has fallen from a perceived contender to an odds longshot.

Kentucky Derby Top Contenders Preview: Noble Indy

With so many fantastic 3-year-olds this year in the prospective 20-horse field for this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs in Louisville on Saturday (6:30 p.m. ET; NBC), Louisiana Derby-winner Noble Indy (25/1 to win Kentucky Derby, 5Dimes) has become somewhat invisible with his other three Todd Pletcher-trained stablemates, Florida Derby winner Audible (+670 to win Kentucky Derby, 5Dimes), Wood Memorial winner Vino Rosso (16/1 to win Kentucky Derby, Bovada) and Arkansas Derby winner Magnum Moon (8/1 to win Kentucky Derby, Bovada) all receiving more money in futures bets action than he has. But that’s why they have horse races and an odds board, for those who want to back a horse (or a team) in an event in the future in a true market with fair and fluctuating odds.

And with betting patterns of recent Runs For The Roses showing the public’s late and race-day penchant for backing the favorite or favorites — the favorite has W5 straight Kentucky Derbies — means anyone with enough conviction to want to back Noble Indy to actually win this first leg of the Triple Crown might end up finding a much better price raceday with the public likely to be backing speedy high-profile chalks like current futures book favorite and Santa Anita Derby winner Justify (+350 to win Kentucky Derby, 5Dimes), Santa Anita Derby 2nd-place finisher Bolt d'Oro (9/1 to win Kentucky Derby, Bovada), UAE Derby winner Mendelssohn (+470 to win Kentucky Derby, 5Dimes) and brilliant stablemate Audible.

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Noble Indy (inside) worked 6F in 1:15.00 at Palm Beach Downs for trainer Todd Pletcher. Noble Indy, the 2018 Louisiana Derby winner, will make his next start in the #KentuckyDerby.

— XBTV (@WatchXBTV) April 20, 2018

A WinStar Farm (and Repole Stable) entry — the stable has four Kentucky Derby qualifying horses this year including Audible, Justify and Quip, who will be bypassing the Kentucky Derby to run in the Preakness Stakes — Noble Indy is jockeyed by John Velazquez and is 3-0-1 in 4 lifetime races and 2-0-1 ths calendar year. In his first start as a 2-year-old on Dec. 3 at Gulfstream Park in a 7-furlong race and jockeyed by Tyler Gaffalione, Noble Indy won by 8¾ lengths at 5/4 odds and then followed up winning an optional claiming test at 1 1/16 miles on Jan. 11 in his 2018 debut with Velazquez now in saddle and at chalky 8/11 odds. The 3-year-old colt then suffered his first career Loss at Fair Grounds (5/1), losing to Bravazo and 2nd-place finisher Snapper Sinclair in the Risen star Stakes (G2) before heading the big Kentucky Derby Super Six Prep race at Fair Grounds (7/2 odds), the Louisiana Derby (G2), and winning to earn 100 points and an automatic trip to Churchill Downs.

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Looking at the Beyer Speed Figures, Noble Indy registered a 95 in the Louisiana Derby, so this bay colt probably doesn’t have the same top-gear speed to hang with the elite runners in this race like the Bob Baffert-trained Justify (107, 104, 101), Mendelssohn (107), Bolt d’Oro (102, 101), stablemate Audible (99, 99) and Magnum Moon (98, 97, 95) all seemingly at another level. So it looks like a good Draw, the perfect trip, the performance of a lifetime and a lot of Luck may be the only way Noble Indy crosses the finish line first in the longest continually held sporting event in the US.

Although son of Take Charge Indy, Noble Indy does have a wonderful pedigree, the simple handicapping truth is that this horse hasn’t faced even close to the caliber of competition that other horses have in this race and the 10 furlongs at the Kentucky Derby will be a real test. Maybe having Noble Indy in a superfecta and/or exotic wager or two might be a good idea with your Kentucky Derby picks, but for many, this will be one of the horses they choose to “throw out” when putting together their assemblage of different Derby Day bets. And, as mentioned, for those wanting to bet Noble Indy in the Futures market to Win, there will likely end up being a better price available to bettors on race day.

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