Nippon Professional Baseball Picks: June 30th Betting Odds

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Andrew Albers former #63 of the Seattle Mariners. Stephen Dunn/Getty Images/AFP

After the first full week of the NPB, we’ve seen some shocking results. The Lotte Marines swept the Orix Buffaloes in a six-game series while the Hanshin Tigers are 2-7 and can’t find offense with Justin Bour and Jefry Marte in the center of the lineup. What’s in store for this week’s series? Here are the best bets for Tuesday.

Orix Buffaloes vs. Seibu Lions

Tuesday, June 30, 2020 – 5:00 am EST

Probable Pitchers Per NPB site:

  • Orix: Andrew Albers (0-0 6.00 ERA)
  • Seibu: Kona Takahashi (1-0 5.06 ERA)

The Orix Buffaloes are the league’s worst 1-8 on the season and went 0-6 on the road in their first six-game road series. They’ll go up against the Seibu Lions who will stay home after going 5-4 in their first nine home games.

That means the Buffaloes will stay on the road after going 0-6 against the Lotte Marines.

The Buffaloes will pitch Andrew Alberts who didn’t look good in his first start of the season. Albers allowed five hits and four runs in six innings. Those runs came off of three homers.

Now the Lions aren’t known for their power just yet this season but seeing that stat line from Albers makes you wonder.

Albers went 2-6 last season with a 5.83 ERA through 13 games in the Pacific League. However, before that season, Albers went 9-2 with a 3.08 ERA.

The difference?

You guessed it. The long ball. Last season, Albers allowed 1.7 homers per nine innings compared to his 2018 season where he allowed just .8 homers per nine innings. That’s one more homer per nine innings. That’s serious regression for Albers. He also allowed 12 hits per nine innings last season and just 8.3 hits per nine in 2018.

He allowed four more hits and one more homer from 2018 to 2019. In 2020, he’s looking like his 2019 numbers.

For the Seibu Lions, they’ll send out Kona Takahashi who went 10-6 with a 4.51 ERA last season. In his first game in 2020, Takahashi won the game after allowing three earned runs in 5.1 innings of work.

Takahashi allows four walks per nine innings and 9.4 hits per nine innings in his career in the NPB. Takahashi is far from an above average pitcher as his ERA in his last two seasons is a combined 4.50.

In 2017, Takahashi tried to play in Melbourne, Australia and left the Seibu Lions. In five games, he was brutal in Australia with a 1-3 record in five games, with a 5.32 ERA and allowed eight runs per nine innings in that league. 

Prediction

The Orix Buffaloes are now able to regroup after a couple one-run losses in the six-game series sweep by the Lotte Marines.

The Buffaloes aren’t going to be a top team in the league but they’ll win more games than one game per nine. This team continues to struggle scoring runs after getting on base. The Buffaloes had 10 hits on Sunday and scored five runs.

The pitching wasted a three-run first inning from the Buffaloes. That’ll probably happen again with Albers on the mound. I’m hitting the over at BetOnline but moving it down one run to 8.5.

Over 8.5 (-154)
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Gabriel Ynoa former #64 of the Baltimore Orioles. Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images/AFP

Hiroshima Carp vs. Yakult Swallows

Tuesday, June 30, 2020 – 5:00 am EST

Probable Pitchers Per NPB site:

  • Hiroshima: Kris Johnson (0-1 5.40 ERA) 
  • Yakult: Gabriel Ynoa (0-1 7.20 ERA)

The Hiroshima Carp are coming into this series 5-3 while the Yakult Swallows are 4-5. With the pandemic, the NPB has tried to really limit travel. Therefore, the Carp will be playing another series on the road while the Swallows continue their homestand in this one.

The Carp are now 5-3 on the road while Yakult is now 4-5 at home. Just like the normal standings.

Kris Johnson will take the mound for the Carp after a below average outing in his first start of the season. Johnson faced the first-place Yomiuri Giants in this game and went five innings, allowing six hits, three runs, three walks and struck out six. He threw 100 pitches and the Giants hit .300 against him on the night.

This was unlike Johnson as he went 11-8 after compiling at 2.59 ERA last season. He allowed just 2.87 runs per nine innings including unearned runs. He averages 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings and walks three batters per nine innings. Johnson has done a great job limiting the home run ball in the NPB as he’s allowed just .5 home runs per nine innings.

In his career, he’s 57-31 in the NPB with a 2.56 ERA after his NPB career began in 2015.

He’ll go up against Gabriel Ynoa, who made his first NPB start of his career last Tuesday. Ynoa couldn’t even fool the Hanshin Tigers, who have been the worst offense in the league up to this point.

Ynoa went five innings after allowing nine hits and four earned runs. He struck out two and walked none but did allow a homer.

Ynoa’s foreign record is now 0-5 with a 6.44 ERA in 11 games. His strikeout numbers while pitching in foreign leagues are low and he’s allowing 12.7 hits per nine innings in those games.

Prediction

I like the Hiroshima Carp in this spot. They’re getting adjusted to life on the road and should have a field day against Ynoa who has yet to get a win in foreign play.

Kris Johnson already has 57 in the NPB.

Hiroshima Carp(-160)
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Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images/AFP

Lotte Marines vs. Rakuten Eagles

Tuesday, June 30, 2020 – 5:00 am EST

Probable Pitchers Per NPB site:

  • Lotte: Kota Futaki (0-0 6.35 ERA)
  • Rakuten: Hayato Yuge (1-0 0.00 ERA)

The Lotte Marines are now 8-1 on the season after a six-game sweep against the Orix Buffaloes at home. Now they’ll travel back on the road to face the Rakuten Eagles who are 6-3 on the season and 4-2 at home.

The Marines will look to continue the win streak with Kota Futaki on the mound. Futaki pitched well up until the 5th inning. In the 5th and 6th inning, he allowed four runs on three hits after allowing a home run. He struck out six and walked one on the night.

Futaki was taken out of the 6th inning with two outs and 78 pitches. The Buffaloes only hit .150 against Futaki on the night as well.

Futaki went 7-10 with a 4.41 ERA last season after allowing almost nine hits per nine innings. He has solid strikeout stuff and walks just 2.5 batters per nine innings in his career. He’s 25-35 going into his sixth season in the NPB.

The Rakuten Eagles will send Hayato Yuge to the mound after a dominating first game of the season. Yuge went 6.2 innings and allowed just three hits, one walk and struck out six against the Nippon Ham Fighters.

Yuge now has a 3.24 ERRA in nine NPB games in his career. He hasn’t allowed an unearned run yet and has struck out 7.2 batters per nine while walking just 1.8 batters per nine innings. 

Prediction

I really liked what I saw out of Yuge in his first start this season against Nippon Ham. He had solid command, great control, and looked dominant all night. His WHIP in that game was .6.

He finished with an ERA of 3.74 in his rookie season last year but looks even better this season.

That’s why I’ll fly with the Eagles on our NPB Picks.

Rakuten Eagles(-160)
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