Nippon Professional Baseball Picks: July 4th Betting Odds

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Nippon Professional Baseball Picks: July 4th Betting Odds
(Photo- The Yomiuri Shimbun )

The Hiroshima Carp and Hanshin Tigers were rained out on Friday. One team will stick with the same pitcher but the other won’t. Where’s the value in that game? Here are the best bets for the NPB on Saturday.

Hiroshima Carp vs. Hanshin Tigers

Saturday, July 4, 2020 – 1:00 am EST

Probable Pitchers Per NPB site:

  • Hiroshima: Daichi Ohsera (2-0 1.00 ERA)
  • Hanshin: Yuta Iwasada (0-1 5.40 ERA)

The first game of the series was rained out on Friday. The game will be made up at a later time. The Carp decided to stick with Daichi Ohsera while the Hanshin Tigers elected to pitch Yuta Iwasada for Saturday’s game.

Daichi Ohsera has pitched two complete games in his first two starts of the season. He went 18 innings in two games and has allowed just one run in those two games. He’s struck out eight and walked two while allowing just 12 hits in 18 innings. Ohsera finished with an ERA of 3.53 last season and has a career ERA of 3.33 throughout his career. His strikeout numbers aren’t high this season but he’s been able to limit walks and hits which has made up for it.

In his career, he’s 54-35 and has 15 complete games in his career. He tallied six last season in 26 games.

Hanshin will send out Yuta Iwasada who hasn’t looked great in his first two starts this season. He’s 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in his first two starts this season. He’s allowed 11 hits and six runs in 10 innings pitched. He’s also struck out seven but walked five in those two games. He’s averaging 9.9 hits per nine innings and walking 4.5 batters per nine innings after those first two starts.

Iwasada finished with a 4.02 ERA last season through eight games and has a career ERA of 3.78 in the NPB since his debut in 2014. He’s also 26-39 in his career in the NPB in 87 total games.

Hanshin’s offense is hitting about .200 as a team this season with just nine homers on the season. They’re second to last in homers in the Central and are struggling to get much of any offense.

Prediction

Ohsera is coming off back-to-back complete games and already looks in mid-season form. He’s allowed just one run in each game and has given the Carp solid outings to start the season. Iwasada has been banged around in his first two starts and is struggling with his walks to begin the season.

Hiroshima Carp-180
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Fans of Hiroshima Carp take spaces as they enjoy live broadcast of an opening baseball game against DeNA Baystars at Matsuda Stadiumi in Hiroshima on June 19, 2020. Japan’s professional baseball regular season started on the same day without fans due to the threat of the spreading coronavirus. ( The Yomiuri Shimbun )

Yomiuri Giants vs. Chunichi Dragons

Saturday, July 4, 2020 – 1:00 am EST

Probable Pitchers Per NPB site:

  • Yomiuri: Kazuto Taguchi (1-0 2.70 ERA) 
  • Chunichi: Kazuki Yoshimi (0-2 5.00 ERA)

The Yomiuri Giants defeated the Chunichi Dragons 5-0 on Friday and are currently in first place in the Central Division. The Giants have seemingly feasted against bullpens after struggling against starting pitching as of late.

Either way, the Giants are getting the job done and will send out Kazuto Taguchi on the mound for this one. Taguchi is 1-0 in his first two games after completing 10 innings, allowing 10 hits, three runs, three walks, and seven strikeouts.

Taguchi was a relief pitcher last season, finishing with a 4.13  ERA in 55 games. For his career, he has a 3.29 ERA since his debut in 2015. It looks as though Taguchi was a starter from 2015-2018 but took on a relief role in 2019. Now he’s back starting in 2020. In 2016 and 2017, he had 26 starts in each season and finished with a combined ERA below 3.

It seems like pitching in relief wasn’t a good choice for Taguchi. He’s already seeing some success back in the starter role this season. The hit numbers are high at nine hits per nine innings but he’s striking out 6.3 batters per nine innings.

His opponent, Kazuki Yoshimi, is struggling striking batters out. For the Dragons, Yoshimi is 1-1 with a 5 ERA. He’s allowed nine hits in nine innings, but three of those have been homers. He’s also struck out just two batters in nine innings and has walked one.

The Giants are one of the lead leaguers in homers on the season and could be in for another big day with the long ball. Yoshimi has been in the league since 2006 and has a career ERA of 2.92. However, he’s regressing year-by-year. In 2019, he finished with a 6.41 ERA in five games. In 2018, he had a 3.87 ERA in 20 games. In 2017, he had an ERA of 5.23 in 14 games. You get the point. He’s regressing going up against one of the best teams in the NPB. He’s not striking batters out and isn’t following anyone in his first two starts. His prime is finished.

Prediction

The Yomiuri Giants have been ganging up on relief pitching as of late but it’s hard to see the Giants not performing against a pitcher that’s regressing like Yoshimi. The Dragons have one of the worst bullpens in the Central division so if it comes down to it, the Giants will just score their runs later in the game. Pick the Giants at BetOnline.

Yomiuri Giants-185
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(Photo by STR / JIJI PRESS / AFP) / Japan OUT

Lotte Marines vs. Rakuten Eagles

Saturday, July 4, 2020 – 1:00 am EST

Probable Pitchers Per NPB site:

  • Lotte: Atsuki Taneichi (0-0 1.38 ERA)
  • Rakuten: Takayuki Kishi (0-0 0.00 ERA)

The Rakuten Eagles defeated the Lotte Marines for the third time in four games on Friday. The Eagles will now pitch Takayuki Kishi who started the season in the minor leagues. Kishi went five innings and allowed four hits and one run while striking out six and walking none in his minor league start earlier this season. Now he’ll make his NPB season debut for Saturday.

Kishi has been in the league since 2007, so he’s not a young and new prospect. Kishi has a career record of 125-84 with 38 complete games along with a career ERA of 3.02. He’s been with the Eagles since 2017 after spending 10 seasons with the Seibu Lions. Last season, he went 3-5 in 15 games with a 3.56 ERA for the Eagles. In 2017 and 2018, he had an ERA near 2.75 both seasons.

After his performance in the minor leagues, the Eagles believed they saw enough to give him another chance in the league. He looked to have solid command in that minor league start after walking no one.

The Marines will pitch Atsuki Taneichi who had looked really good in his first two games of the season. Taneichi received two no-decisions after throwing 13 innings, allowing nine hits and two runs while striking out 13 and walking just two batters. Taneichi hasn’t got the run support from the Marines in his first two games. He’s got a WHIP of .85 in the first two games and is averaging nine strikeouts per nine innings to start the season.

Prediction

Atsuki Taneichi has looked really good in his first two starts. The 13 strikeouts to two walks prove that he’s been hard to hit so far this season. The young pitcher finished with a 3.24 ERA through 26 games and went 8-2 on the season. On the other hand, Kishi had a solid start in the minors and looks to be in line for a solid outing himself with his strikeout numbers high and walk numbers low. The game saw just four runs on Friday. I like the under to hit again.

Under 8.5-125
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