NASCAR’s Monster Energy Cup Series visits New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the first time this season for Sunday’s Overton’s 301. Race time from Loudon is set for 3 p.m., and the 19th points race of the season will be covered nationally on NBC Sports Network.
Going chalk in last week’s race at Kentucky would have produced a winning ticket with Martin Truex Jr. taking the checkered flag as the favorite. Kyle Larson added another second-place run to this season’s resume and Chase Elliott placed third.
The following is a look at my top valued favorite, contender and long shot to win this Sunday afternoon’s race at New Hampshire based on betting odds as provided by 5Dimes.
Top Valued Favorite
He may be third on the list this week at +650 betting odds, but I am going with Kevin Harvick as my top favorite to win Sunday. It has been a bit of a rocky ride for the 2014 Cup series champ with five finishes of 20th or higher working against the No. 4 Chevrolet’s six runs inside the top five, including a victory last month on the road course at Sonoma. The net result is still pretty good with this team holding down fourth place in the current standings with 599 total points. The main reason I am going with Harvick this week is his fairly dominating performance at New Hampshire over the past few seasons with four finishes of fourth or better in his last five point races at this track -- including a victory in the second race here last year.
Top Valued Contender
I am sold on Kyle Larson as a legitimate threat to win this year’s Cup series title in just his fourth full-time season racing at NASCAR’s highest level. He has already won twice this season, but even more impressive is the fact that he has finished second in another six point-race events through the first 18 races on the schedule. The No. 42 Chevrolet is at the top of the standings with 710 points. Larson’s early track record at New Hampshire is nothing to write home about, but this pick is based on his current racing form and the momentum he brings into this race from last week’s second-place run at Kentucky.
Top Valued Long Shot
Longer odds usually equate to a much longer chance to win when it comes to Cup series racing, but I do believe that there is some solid value in veteran driver Clint Bowyer’s chances to pay off on his +2200 odds to win this week. He has been able to keep his No. 14 Ford competitive for most of the season with seven runs inside the top 10, and more recently he posted a pair of second-place finishes at Sonoma and Daytona before fading to 13th in last week’s race. This team still needs a victory to ensure itself a spot in the upcoming 10-race playoff even though it is holding down the 10th spot in the standings with 495 total points. Most of his recent runs at this track have been forgettable, but Bowyer does have two career victories at New Hampshire.
Odds For Other Notable Drivers
The top favorite to win on Sunday is Kyle Busch at +400 even though he has been shut out of the Winner’s Circle all season long. Last week’s winner Truex Jr. has been listed as a +450 second-favorite this week. Following Harvick on the list is Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin at +700 and Jimmie Johnson at +800 odds to win. The rest of the of the top 10 along with Larson at +1000 starts with Matt Kenseth at +900 and it ends with both Joey Logano and Elliott at +1400 betting odds.Talk NASCAR Betting In Our Forum