NASCAR Visits Dover's Monster Mile for AAA 400 Drive for Autism

dover speedway

David Schwab

Wednesday, May 31, 2017 4:31 PM GMT

Wednesday, May. 31, 2017 4:31 PM GMT

NASCAR’s Monster Energy Cup Series will make its first stop of season at Dover International Speedway’s Monster Mile for the running of Sunday's AAA 400 Drive for Autism. The race starts at 1 p.m. (ET) and will be broadcast nationally on FOX Sports 1.

Last Sunday night at Charlotte in the Coca-Cola 600, Austin Dillon guided his No. 3 Chevrolet to a first-place finish to post his first career victory racing at NASCAR’s highest level. Kyle Busch finished second as my top valued favorite at +600 betting odds, and Martin Truex Jr. rounded out the top three. The following is a look at my top valued favorite, contender and long shot to win this Sunday's AAA 400 Drive for Autism at Dover based on betting odds as provided by 5Dimes.

 

Top Valued Favorite

Picking one of the most successful Cup series drivers at Dover the best odds to win at +500 makes all the sense in the world, so I am going with Jimmie Johnson as this week’s top valued favorite to win. The No. 48 Chevrolet already has two victories on this season’s resume at Texas and Bristol in consecutive weeks, but those were the team’s only two finishes inside the top five through the first 12 events on the 2017 schedule. Nonetheless, JJ's track record at the Monster Mile speaks for itself with 10 trips to Victory Lane over the course of his career and an average finishing position of 9.5.

 

Top Valued Contender

For the most part, veteran Cup series driver Matt Kenseth has been a non-factor on the track this season with just three finishes in the top five driving the No. 20 Toyota. However, this team took a big step in the right direction by finishing fourth last Sunday at Charlotte. Sitting all the way back in 15th place in the current standings, his odds to break through with a victory this week have been set at +1800. The immediate value in those odds is last season’s win in this very same event. Kenseth has now finished seventh or better in five of his last six trips around this track.

 

Top Valued Long Shot

Stretching the odds to win at the long-shot level in any Cup series event is a difficult thing to do, but do not tell that to anyone betting on Dillon to win last week after closing at +11500. While I am not going that deep in the numbers for this week’s long-shot pick, I do believe there is some solid value with Clint Bowyer at +2000. The veteran driver of the No. 14 Ford is off to a solid start with a pair of runs inside the top five at Fontana (3rd) and Bristol (2nd). The main reason I like his chances this week is his respectable showing at Dover over the past few years. His last three runs have been forgettable, but going back to the 2011 season Bowyer was able to post a Top 10 finish in his previous nine trips around the Monster Mile. 

 

Odds For Other Notable Drivers

Kevin Harvick is still looking for his first Cup series victory of the season, and his odds to end that drought Sunday have been set at +550. Kyle Busch is another high-profile driver who has been shutout of Victory Lane in a points race event, and his odds to win this race have been set at +600. A trio of drivers, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski and Truex Jr., are next on the list at +700, and they have accounted for a combined five checkered flags through the first 12 Cup Series events. Chase Elliott and Joey Logano round-out the top of the list at +1000 odds to win.

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