Toyota/Save Mart 350 Picks, Predictions & Odds 2023: Careful Price Shopping Yields Value

Get all set for NASCAR road racing in wine country with our Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks and predictions based on the best available betting odds.

The NASCAR Cup Series will descend upon wine country this weekend. Sonoma Raceway in California will entertain the drivers for the annual Toyota/Save Mart 350. This marks the second road course race of the season and will also be the series’ final trip to The Golden State of 2023.

Last year, Daniel Suarez earned his first and what remains his only career victory in this race. Like any other road course, driving skills will play a major factor in who finishes well on Sunday. However, it is worth noting that Sonoma is far less technically demanding than some of the other road courses on the NASCAR schedule. 

Here are our NASCAR best bets and 2023 Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks for Sunday’s action at Sonoma Raceway (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Toyota/Save Mart 350 best bets

• Outright winner: Tyler Reddick (+600 via SuperBook) ⭐⭐
• Top 5 finish: Kevin Harvick (+300 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
• Group F matchup: Austin Dillon (+280 via SuperBook) vs. Bubba Wallace, Zane Smith, Ryan Preece ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds

Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks

Outright winner: Tyler Reddick (+600 via SuperBook) ⭐⭐

Sonoma Raceway may not be as technically demanding as some other road courses on the NASCAR schedule, but Tyler Reddick still figures to be tough to beat. It’s anyone’s guess where he might’ve finished last year if he wasn’t knocked out of the race. Reddick has yet to achieve a positive result in two Cup Series starts here, but his road course prowess is second to none.

Entering the Toyota/Save Mart 350, Reddick has emerged as the outright winner in three of the last five road races that the Cup Series has contested. This includes the only race of the 2023 season to date at Circuit of the Americas. In 16 total road races dating back through 2020, Reddick has three outright wins, five top-5s, and 10 top-10s.

Although he wasn’t regarded as a dominant road racer prior to breaking into victory lane twice last year, it’s clear that Reddick has found his groove in this discipline. With recent history in his favor, bettors should target to back the No. 45 car at SuperBook where a +600 price yields considerable value relative to other shops.

Bettors may also want to target Reddick's NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds ahead of a possible win this week.

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Top 5 finish: Kevin Harvick (+300 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐

As a Bakersfield, CA native, Kevin Harvick certainly considered Sonoma Raceway to be his “home track”. With 2023 set to be his last in the NASCAR Cup Series, Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 will be Harvick’s final race in his home state. There will most certainly be some extra motivation to go out on a positive note.

In addition to that added fire, Harvick actually has a solid history at Sonoma that makes this top-5 wager well worth a look. The headline result came in the form of an outright victory in 2017. In the last seven races NASCAR has held in Wine Country, Harvick has finished sixth or better six times. Four of those races, including last year, saw him place within the top-4.

Harvick certainly isn’t a dominant technical road racer. Luckily, he doesn’t have to be to run well at a faster track like Sonoma. This is reflected in his results here, and in his 9.1 average finish position spanning the last 10 races. 

This top-5 prop bet becomes that much more appealing when one notes the considerable price discrepancy present in the market. BetMGM’s 3-1 odds offer a much healthier return than DraftKings’ +225 price on the same prop.

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Group F matchup: Austin Dillon (+280 via SuperBook) vs. Bubba Wallace, Zane Smith and Ryan Preece ⭐⭐⭐⭐

To put things bluntly, the four drivers included in SuperBook’s Group F matchup aren’t exactly what we would call “road course ringers”. In fact, Bubba Wallace is even on record as saying his favorite turn at Sonoma Raceway is the one he makes leaving the track at the end of the weekend. Simply finishing in the top 20 may prove to be enough to win this group.

Statistically speaking, Austin Dillon is by far the best of the worst when it comes to road course results. At Sonoma Raceway specifically, Dillon’s 17.3 average finish is the best of any driver in this group. He piloted the No. 3 Chevrolet to a career-best 11th-place run just last year. 

Meanwhile, there is a limited amount of Sonoma data points for the other drivers in this group. In fact, Zane Smith has never raced here in the NASCAR Cup Series before, let alone run on a road course at the sport’s top level. As for Wallace and Ryan Preece, they have combined for only one top-20 finish in six combined starts at Sonoma.

Road course stats as a whole also favor Dillon over his Group F cohorts. The NASCAR Cup Series has run a total of 16 road races since the start of the 2020 season. Dillon’s average finish of 19.5 in those races leads all drivers in this group. Wallace sits at 24.5 and Preece (10 starts) at 23.6.

Given that he is facing two poor road racers and a part-time Cup Series newcomer in Smith, backing Dillon at +280 to win this four-man horserace is one of the most attractive bets on the board this weekend.

Toyota/Save Mart 350 race info

• Date: Sunday, June 11, 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Sonoma Raceway, Sonoma, CA
• TV: FOX
• Defending winner: Daniel Suarez

Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks made 06/09/23 at 11 p.m. ET

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