NASCAR Sprint Cup Picks: Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond

Wednesday, September 4, 2013 4:27 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 4, 2013 4:27 PM UTC

This week’s Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond marks the final NASCAR Sprint Cup series point race before the start of the 10-race Chase to this season’s title.
<p>Saturday night’s race is set to get underway at 5:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast nationally on ABC.</p> <p><span style="font-size:1em">Kyle Busch cemented his spot in the Chase with <a target="_blank" title="NASCAR Sprint Cup Picks: Advocare 500 at Atlanta" href="/nascar-betting/free-picks/nascar-sprint-cup-picks-advocare-500-atlanta-a-33071/">a victory in last Sunday night’s race at Atlanta</a>. Joey Logano helped his Chase chances with a second-place finish and Martin Truex Jr. stayed in the hunt for spot in the 12-man field by taking third. We went out on a limb with Denny Hamlin as our +1500 value <a href="/nascar-betting/" title="For the latest in NASCAR news, odds and analysis, visit SBRForum.com!" target="_blank">racing pick</a> last week and it did not pay off with a distant 38</span><sup>th</sup><span style="font-size:1em">-place finish after starting a promising fourth.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:1em">The following is a look at a few of the top favorites for Saturday night’s race along with our top value pick based on <a target="_blank" title="Free live and updated NASCAR odds at SBRForum.com!" href="/nascar-betting/">NASCAR odds</a> provided by Sportsbook.</span></p> <p><b style="font-size:1em">Favorites</b></p> <p><img style="font-size:1em" src="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks-pictures/KyleBuschNASCAR_September2013_200.jpg" class="imgSelectedPicture article-image" alt="Image preview" id="ctl00_head_ArticleAdministrator_picturePreview_imgSelectedPicture" /><span style="font-size:1em">Odds makers decided to ride a hot hand by listing </span><b style="font-size:1em">Kyle Busch</b><span style="font-size:1em"> as this week’s favorite to win at +500. He has climbed his way to fifth place in the <a href="/nascar-betting/standings/" title="NASCAR Sprint Cup Standings" target="_blank">Sprint Cup standings</a> with a total of 786 points. Last Sunday night’s victory was his fourth of the season to go along with another seven top-five finishes for the No. 18 race team. Busch finished 24</span><sup>th</sup><span style="font-size:1em"> in the first race at Richmond this season, but his overall performance at this track remains strong with four Sprint Cup victories and an average finishing position of 6.5.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:1em">There is a trio of second-favorites at +700 to win on Saturday night led by the current point leader </span><b style="font-size:1em">Jimmie Johnson</b><span style="font-size:1em">. The No. 48 car has been surprisingly quiet the past few weeks with three-straight finishes of 28</span><sup>th</sup><span style="font-size:1em"> or higher, but the overall record remains extremely strong this season with four checkered flags and five additional top-five finishes. Richmond may not be a good track to try and work out the kinks considering that Johnson’s average finishing position here is 16.3. He finished 13</span><sup>th</sup><span style="font-size:1em"> in this race last season and 12</span><sup>th</sup><span style="font-size:1em"> in the first race here this year.</span></p> <p><b style="font-size:1em">Matt Kenseth</b><span style="font-size:1em"> has already secured a spot in this year’s Chase on the strength of five point-race victories and a grand total of 12 top-10 finishes. He has also been opened at +700 to win this week and for good reason. The No. 20 car has led an amazing 1144 laps this season including 140 in the first race at Richmond. Kenseth ended-up finishing seventh in that race after starting on the pole. He also had a strong showing in this race last season with a fifth-place finish after starting 17</span><sup>th</sup><span style="font-size:1em">.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:1em">The third driver opened at +700 to win this week is last season’s Sprint Cup Champion </span><b style="font-size:1em">Brad Keselowski</b><span style="font-size:1em">. He has been a forgotten man this year in the No. 2 car with zero point race victories and he will most likely not even have a chance to defend his title considering the fact that he is currently 15</span><sup>th</sup><span style="font-size:1em"> in the standings. Current form adds little <a href="/" title="For the latest in free sports picks, odds and predictions, visit SBRForum.com!" target="_blank">sports betting</a> value to these odds nor does his past performance at this track. Keselowski finished 33 in the first race at Richmond this year and his best Sprint Cup finish here is seventh in last year’s race.</span></p> <p><b style="font-size:1em">Top Value Pick</b></p> <p><b style="font-size:1em">Kevin Harvick</b><span style="font-size:1em"> has found the winner’s circle twice this season with one of those trips being at this very track. He has also raced the No. 29 car to third-place in the standings with 13 top-10 finishes so we are still scratching our heads as to why he has been opened at +1200 to complete the series sweep at Richmond. We decided to bite by making Harvick our top value pick to prove the odds makers wrong. It also helps that he won this race in 2011 and finished 10</span><sup>th</sup><span style="font-size:1em"> in this event last year.</span></p> <p><strong style="font-size:1em">NASCAR pick:</strong><span style="font-size:1em"> Kevin Harvick at 11/1 at Bovada</span></p> <em>Discuss the <a target="_blank" title="Share your thoughts on this season's NASCAR on our forum!" href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nascar-betting/2557550-richmond-night-race-5mike5.html">Federated Auto Parts 400</a> on our NASCAR message board!</em>
comment here