NASCAR Sprint Cup Picks: Advocare 500 at Atlanta

Thursday, August 29, 2013 3:21 PM UTC

Thursday, Aug. 29, 2013 3:21 PM UTC

NASCAR’s Sprint Cup series will make its annual visit to Atlanta Motor Speedway this Labor Day Weekend for the running of the AdvoCare 500.
<p>Sunday night’s race is set to get underway at 4:30 p.m. (PT) and it will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.</p> <p><span style="font-size:1em">Last Saturday night at Bristol, Matt Kenseth became the first five-time point race winner this season with <a target="_blank" title="NASCAR Picks: Irwin Tools Night Race at Bristol" href="/nascar-betting/free-picks/nascar-picks-irwin-tools-night-race-bristol-a-32921/">a first-place finish in the Irwin Tools Night Race</a>. Kasey Kahne took second and Juan Pablos Montoya finished a surprising third. Our value <a href="/nascar-betting/" title="For the latest in NASCAR news, odds and analysis, visit!" target="_blank">racing pick</a> to win last week’s race was Clint Bowyer at +1000, but he could only manage a 14</span><sup>th</sup><span style="font-size:1em">-place finish after starting 24</span><sup>th</sup><span style="font-size:1em">.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:1em">The following is a look at a few of the top favorites for Sunday night’s race along with our top value pick based on <a target="_blank" title="Free live and updated NASCAR odds at!" href="/nascar-betting/">NASCAR odds</a> provided by Sportsbook.</span></p> <p><b style="font-size:1em">Favorites</b></p> <p><b style="font-size:1em">Jimmie Johnson’s</b><span style="font-size:1em"> lead in the current <a href="/nascar-betting/standings/" title="NASCAR Sprint Cup Standings" target="_blank">Sprint Cup standings</a> has been whittled down to just 18 points after a couple of poor finishes the past few weeks so there has to be some sense of urgency for the No. 48 racing team to right the ship this week. Odds makers must agree by opening him as the favorite to win this race at +450. Johnson has already won four point races this season and t<a target="_blank" title="NASCAR Picks: Sprint Cup All-Star Race Preview" href="/nascar-betting/free-picks/nascar-picks-sprint-cup-all-star-race-preview-a-31421/">he non-point All Star Race back in May</a>, but the real value in these racing odds is a solid track record in Atlanta. He finished 34</span><sup>th</sup><span style="font-size:1em"> in last year’s race because of a wreck but this followed a second-place finish in 2011 and a third-place finish the year before that. He also has three previous Sprint Cup victories here on his resume.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:1em"><img style="font-size:1em" src="" class="imgSelectedPicture article-image" alt="Image preview" id="ctl00_head_ArticleAdministrator_picturePreview_imgSelectedPicture" />Last week’s winner </span><b style="font-size:1em">Matt Kenseth</b><span style="font-size:1em"> has been opened as a +600 second favorite to win again this Sunday night. It is hard to argue with this logic based on the No. 20 car’s form all season long. Not only has this team won five races this year, it has placed in the top 10 in an additional seven events. It is now in sixth place in the standings with 736 points which is only 85 points behind Johnson. Kenseth has already led more laps this year than in any other full season in the Sprint Cup series, but some of the value in his odds is lost due to his past performance in this race. He did finish second in 2010, but that was his only top-five finish in his last six trips around this track.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:1em">One of the next favorites at +700 is </span><b style="font-size:1em">Kasey Kahne</b><span style="font-size:1em">. Last week’s second-place finish moved the No. 5 car into eighth-place in the standings with 701 points. It remains in great shape to earn a spot in this year’s Chase with two previous point race titles and it has now finished in the top five in a total of eight races this season. It has been a struggle for Kahne at Atlanta the last three years but prior to that he took the checkered flag in this race in 2009.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:1em">The other driver listed at +700 to win this race is </span><b style="font-size:1em">Kyle Busch</b><span style="font-size:1em">. After a very disappointing 2012 season, the No. 18 team has turned things around this year with three point-race victories and seven other top-five finishes that has it sitting in fifth-place in the standings with 739 points. Busch has had mixed results at this track over the years, but he did win here in 2008. Since then he ended-up fifth in this race in 2010 and sixth in last year’s AdvoCare 500.</span></p> <p><b style="font-size:1em">Top Value Pick</b></p> <p><span style="font-size:1em">It has been a forgettable season for </span><b style="font-size:1em">Denny Hamlin</b><span style="font-size:1em"> and the No. 11 car, but anytime you can get longer odds on the defending champion of last year’s race it is worth the risk. He has been opened at +1500 to successfully defend his title making him our top value <a href="/" title="For the latest in free sports picks, odds and predictions, visit!" target="_blank">betting pick</a> this week. Hamlin already missed four races early in the season due to injury and he has not finished better than eighth in his last 11 point races so we are going way out on a limb with this pick.</span></p> <p><strong>NASCAR pick:</strong> Denny Hamlin at 14/1 at Bovada</p> <em>Discuss the <a target="_blank" title="Share your thoughts on this season's NASCAR on our forum!" href="">Advocare 500</a> on our NASCAR message board!</em>
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