NASCAR’s Sprint Cup series will make its second stop of the 2015 season at Pocono Raceway this Sunday afternoon for the running of the Windows 10 400. All the action from Pocono is slated to get underway at 10:30 a.m. (PT) and the race will be broadcast nationally on NBC Sports Network.
When it comes to NASCAR there is hot and then there is Kyle Busch-hot. He has now won four of his last five Sprint Cup point races following this past Sunday’s victory at Indianapolis. Joey Logano finished in second place and for the second week in a row Kevin Harvick took third.
The following is a look at my top valued favorite, contender and longshot to win this Sunday’s race based on betting odds provided by Bovada.
Top Valued Favorite
Normally you should ride a hot streak until it ends, but instead of going with Kyle Busch this week as a +450 favorite I am stretching the value a bit with Dale Earnhardt Jr. at +800 as my top-valued favorite this week. The No. 88 car has made its way to the Winner’s Circle twice this season to go along with an additional eight Top 5 finishes in its first 20 point races. The team is coming off a disappointing 22nd-place run at Indy; however it has still placed in the Top 5 in half of its last six races. The main reason I am going with Dale Jr. for this Sunday’s race was his sweep at Pocono last season. He ended-up 11th in the first race here this year to break a string of four-straight Top 5 finishes.
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Top Valued Contender
Moving down the list I have zeroed-in on Denny Hamlin as my top-valued contender at +1200 betting odds to win this race. He has always been one of my favorite drivers over the years and while he can be streaky, he can also be streaky good. Along with his lone victory at Martinsville in mid-May, the No. 11 car has placed in the Top 5 in five other events. The good news coming into this race is that three of those runs were in his last four races. Hamlin also has a solid racing record at Pocono with four victories from 2006 to 2010 and he has finished in the Top 10 in his last four Sprint Cup races here, so he is a reasonable sports pick.
Top Valued Longshot
Most times I will go with a veteran driver with longer odds given the experience factor, but I have turned to Kyle Larson a time or two this year just because I think he is due to break through with his first Sprint Cup victory in just his second full-time season racing in this series. The clues are there with six Top 10 finishes through 20 races including a third-place finish at Dover. One of those other Top-10 runs was an eight-place finish at Pocono back in early June. Through three career runs at this track in a Sprint Cup race, his average finishing position is a solid 8.0. Larson has been listed at +5000 betting odds to make his first ever trip to Victory Lane this Sunday.
Betting Odds for Other Notable Drivers
As mentioned, Kyle Busch is a +450 favorite to win this race and so is Kevin Harvick after posting his 12th Top 5 finish last week to go along with two early season victories. The third-favorite on Bovada’s list for this race is Jimmie Johnson at +700 odds. Brad Keselowski follows Dale Jr. at +850 and Joey Logano’s odds to win have been set at +900 along with Martin Truex Jr., who just so happened to win the first race at Pocono this season. Kurt Busch and Matt Kenseth are listed at +1000 and Carl Edwards rounds-out the Top 10 at +1200 along with Hamlin.