NASCAR’s Sprint Cup Series heads to the Monster Mile at Dover International Speedway for this year’s FedEx 400 benefiting Autism Speaks. The green flag for Sunday’s race is set for 10 a.m. (PT) and it will be broadcast nationally on FOX Sports 1.
It had been awhile since Carl Edwards finished first in a Sprint Cup race but he was able to take the checkered flag last week at Charlotte. Greg Biffle turned-in a solid run by taking second and Dale Earnhardt Jr. once again finished in the top three after ending-up third. My top-valued contender Matt Kenseth (+1500) made a run at the leaders by finishing fourth.
The following is a look at my top valued favorite, contender and longshot to win this Sunday race based on the betting odds compiled by Sportsbook Review.
Top Valued Favorite
Once again Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson are the top two drivers on the list of contenders and for the second straight week I am going with Johnson as my top-valued pick at +350 betting odds. Neither driver posted a good run last week at Charlotte, but the No. 48 car got the worst of it by sliding all the way to 40th in the final standings. The last time this team finished outside the top 30 cars on the track this season was at Martinsville and it came back the following week to win at Texas. Since that race, it added another win with a victory at Kansas to go along with three additional top-three finishes. The main reason I like Johnson this week is he comes in as the defending champion of this race.
Top Valued Contender
It is rare that Joey Logano is not one of the top three of four drivers on the list, but this week he falls to fifth at +1000 betting odds. That is enough for me to jump all over the value in this number. The No. 22 car is currently third in the Sprint Cup standings with a total of 407 points on the strength of a victory at Daytona to start the season and another five finishes in the top five in the first 12 point races this year. The other reason I like Logano’s value is his recent performance at this track. Going back to this event in the 2012 season, he has placed 10th or better in all six trips around the Monster Mile in a Sprint Cup race.
Top Valued Longshot
In search of value with some of the longer odds to win this race, I have turned my attention to Kasey Kahne at +2000. The No. 5 car has struggled with consistency through the first 12 point races with four finishes inside the top 10 including a fourth-place finish at Phoenix and five others of 17th or higher, so it is tough to rely on current form when making this pick. Part of my reasoning for going with Kahne is the simple fact that he is still one of the better drivers in the Sprint Cup series that knows how to win races. Dover has not been one of his favorite tracks in recent years, but that is part of the reason why his odds to win are so high.
Betting Odds for other Notable Drivers
Kevin Harvick is actually a +350 co-favorite with Johnson to win this week followed by Brad Keselowski at +600 and Kurt Busch at +800. Matt Kenseth is sixth on the list at +1200 and there is a trio of drivers led by veteran Jeff Gordon at +1500. The other two drivers in that group are Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr.