NASCAR Picks: Subway Fresh Fit 500

David Schwab

Thursday, February 28, 2013 5:13 PM UTC

Thursday, Feb. 28, 2013 5:13 PM UTC

With the thrill of Daytona’s Speed Week in the rear view mirror, NASCAR’s Sprint Cup series heads west this week for the Subway Fresh Fit 500 at Phoenix International Speedway.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Betting Preview- The Subway Fresh Fit 500

Sunday’s race is set to get underway at 11:30 p.m. (PT) and it will be broadcast nationally on FOX.

Jimmie Johnson began his quest for a sixth Sprint Cup title in grand fashion with last week’s victory in the Daytona 500. Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s last lap surge landed him in second place and Martin took third. What made Johnson’s win so special was the fact he was our top value pick to win at +1400.

The following is a look at a few of the top favorites for Sunday’s race along with our value pick based on odds provided by Sportsbook.


Riding a hot hand, Jimmie Johnson has been opened on the NASCAR Odds Boardsat +600 to make it two in-a-row with a win at Phoenix this Sunday afternoon. Current form alone adds some value to these odds, but the No.48 car came very close to winning this race last season with a fourth-place finish after starting in the exact same position. Johnson has four career victories at this track and they all came in a span of just five races from 2007 to 2009. His average finishing position at Phoenix is an impressive 6.7 in 19 career starts.

There is a trio of drivers listed at +800 second-favorites to win this race starting with the reining Sprint Cup Champion Brad Keselowski. The No.2 car was a fairly quiet participant in last week’s race at Daytona, but when the smoke cleared at the finish line it found itself in fourth place. Keselowski will be making just his eighth career start at this track, but he brings some momentum with a fifth-place finish in last year’s race and a sixth-place finish in the second race here last season. Out of the previous seven races, they were the only two top-10 finishes.

The second driver listed at +800 is Denny Hamlin. He led last week’s race for 33 laps but in the end could only manage a 14th-place finish after starting 33rd. The No.11 car comes into this race as the defending champion after taking the checkered flag in 2012. It continued its recent success at this track with a second-place finish in the second trip to Phoenix last year. Hamlin has an average finishing position of 10.3 here as a result of seven top-five finishes in 15 career starts.

Kyle Busch was looking for a fast start to a new year last week at Daytona to try and put a disappointing 2012 campaign behind. He got it with a victory in one of the Budweiser Duels but when it came to the 500 his luck ran out as engine trouble resulted in a 34th-place finish. This week he is listed as the third driver at +800 to finally get back to his winning ways in a Sprint Cup point race. The No.18 Toyota posted a second-place finish in this race in 2011 and ended-up sixth in last year’s race. Overall, Busch has one career victory at this track in 2005 and nine additional top 10 finishes.

Top Value Pick

Kasey Kahne is coming off a disappointing 36th-place finish in the Daytona 500 and he could only manage a 34th-place finish in this race last year, but he is still our top value pick at +1000 to win this week. The main reason we find tremendous value in these odds is the fact that the No.5 car raced its way to a fourth-place finish in the Sprint Cup standings last season that was aided by a fourth-place finish at Phoenix at the end of the year. Add in the fact that Kahne won the second race here in 2011 and now has three top-10 finishes in his last four races at this track and the value goes up even higher making this our NASCAR picks.

NASCAR Picks: Kahne +1000 at Bet365
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