NASCAR Picks: Sprint Cup Betting Preview- AdvoCare 500

David Schwab

Wednesday, November 6, 2013 8:48 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2013 8:48 PM UTC

The green flag is set to wave at 12:15 p.m. (PT) and the race will be broadcast nationally on ESPN. Let get the best betting odds on the drivers for our sports picks.

We are down to two races and two drivers in the Chase to the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup title starting with this Sunday’s AdvoCare 500 from Phoenix International Raceway. 

Jimmie Johnson regained his lead in the Sprint Cup standings with a victory last Sunday at Texas. Dale Earnhardt Jr. added yet another second place finish to his 2013 resume and Joey Logano took third. Our value pick for this race was Kevin Harvick at +1200, but his already slim title hopes took a major hit with an eighth-place finish after starting 19th. 

The following is a look at a few of the top favorites for Sunday’s race along with our top value pick based on odds provided by Sportsbooks. 


Given that Jimmie Johnson remains in hot pursuit of his sixth career Sprint Cup title it is little wonder that he has been opened as one of two co-favorites to win this Sunday’s race at +400. The No. 48 car posted its sixth point race victory of the year last week which opened-up a seven point lead in the current standings heading into the final two weeks of a grueling 36-race schedule. The first race this year at Phoenix was right on the heels of Johnson’s season-opening victory in the Daytona 500 and he ended-up in second place. He placed a disappointing 32nd in this race last season, but he does have four career victories here and an average finishing position of 6.4. 

It is also no big surprise that Matt Kenseth has been opened as the other +400 co-favorite to win this race considering he is the only other driver that has a legitimate shot at winning this year’s title. The No. 20 car fell off the pace with a fourth-place finish in last week’s race, but this team still holds the tie-breaker in the Chase to the Cup with seven previous point race victories this season. Kenseth started this Chase with back-to-back checkered flags at Chicago and New Hampshire followed by a top-five finish in three of the last four events. The only drain on his odds for this race is a less than stellar track record at Phoenix in recent years. He has just three top-10 finishes for our NASCAR picks in his last 11 races including a seventh-place finish in the first race here this season. 

Top Value Pick

While Harvick, Kyle Busch and even Dale Earnhardt Jr. may not be mathematically out of the running for this year’s title, they are basically battling it out for third place in the standings over the next two weeks. While Harvick has been opened at +1000 NASCAR betting odds to win on Sunday with Busch listed as a +500 third-favorite to make a trip down victory lane, we are going with Junior as our value pick to win Sunday’s race at +2000. The No. 88 car has yet to win a point race this season, but last week’s second place finish was the team’s third in this season’s Chase and fifth on the year. We admit we are going way out on a limb on this one considering that Dale Jr. has not won at this track since 2004, but he did finish fifth in the first race at Phoenix this year.

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