NASCAR’s Power Trio Tops Betting Odds for Sunday's AAA Texas 500

David Schwab

Wednesday, October 31, 2018 2:36 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 31, 2018 2:36 PM UTC

NASCAR’s Monster Energy Cup Series is at Texas Motor Speedway for Sunday's AAA Texas 500 (3 p.m. ET; NBCSN), the second of three races leading up to the season finale at Homestead-Miami for the 2018 title.

 

Joey Logano is a lock for the title race after winning last Sunday at Martinsville. Denny Hamlin was in the mix with a second-place run, and Martin Truex Jr. rounded out the top three as the defending Cup Series Champion.

The betting odds to win this Sunday’s race at Texas have been posted on 5Dimes’ NASCAR futures board, with the following three drivers offering the best value in the numbers.

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#NASCARAmerica's @KelliStavast visited three playoff crew chiefs and came back with their strategy for @TXMotorSpeedway https://t.co/CEtqNlLQNP

— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) October 31, 2018
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Top-Valued Favorite: Kyle Busch +400

I went with Busch last week as my top-valued favorite and he ended up in fourth place at Martinsville. That was enough to keep the No. 18 Toyota at the top of the current Cup Series standings with 4,104 total points. However, it is not enough to guarantee that one of the top three Cup Series drivers this season has a spot in the four-driver field for that championship race. His only playoff victory was at Richmond as part of his seven point-race wins on the year.

The real value in Busch’s odds, other than a sense of urgency to win on Sunday, is his victory in the first race this season at Texas. He also won the first race at this track in the 2016 season.

Top-Valued Contender: Chase Elliott +1350

Elliott gets credit for being the only driver to post two trips to Victory Lane in this year’s playoff with wins at Dover and Kansas. He also won on the road course at Watkins Glen as part of his three career Cup Series wins in his third season racing full time at NASCAR’s highest level. Behind the wheel of the No. 9 Chevrolet, he has really come into his own, especially in this 10-race run to a racing title. Elliott slipped to seventh at Martinsville and to sixth in the standings to add a sense of urgency to this Sunday’s race.

This will be his sixth career Cup Series run at Texas. With the exception of an 11th-place finish earlier this season, Elliott has finished in the top 10 in his other four events.

Top-Valued Longshot: Clint Bowyer +2200

As one of the most tenured veterans in this year’s competition, Bowyer knows that Sunday could be a "now or never" run with just one more race at Phoenix to try advance to the final championship round. To his credit, he guided his No. 14 Ford to a third-place finish at Charlotte before taking second at Talladega as part of his playoff highlight reel. Last Sunday at Martinsville, he faded to 21st to fall to seventh in the current standings.

Texas has not been one of Bowyer’s better tracks over the years with a 15.8 average finishing position to help explain the longer odds. However, I still find solid value in his current racing form.

Betting Odds for Other Notable Drivers

Kevin Harvick is the top favorite to win on Sunday at +275 odds after winning this race last season. Martin Truex Jr. is listed as a +450 third-favorite, followed by Kyle Larson at +700 and Brad Keselowski at +850 betting odds. Joining Elliott at longer +1350 odds to win is Ryan Blaney.

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