NASCAR Picks: Bristol Motor Speedway Food City 500

David Schwab

Wednesday, March 13, 2013 7:18 PM GMT

NASCAR’s Sprint Cup series wrapped-up a two-race swing out west last Sunday in Las Vegas and returns the East Coast this week for the running of the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Betting Preview- Food City 500

Sunday’s race is set to get underway at 10 a.m. (PT) and it will be broadcast nationally on FOX.

It did not take Matt Kenseth too long to find the winner’s circle this year with a first-place finish at Las Vegas in the third Sprint Cup point race of the season. Kasey Kahne raced his way to second place and defending Sprint Cup champion Brad Keselowski finished third. Our value pick for that race was Dale Earnhardt Jr. at 10/1. After starting 12th, he could only work his way up to seventh place.

The following is a look at a few of the top favorites for Sunday’s race along with our value NASCAR pick based on odds provided by Bovada.

Favorites

Kyle Busch is coming off one of his most forgettable seasons in Sprint Cup racing and off to a slow start this year in the standings, but he has been opened as a 6/1 favorite to turn things around this Sunday with a much needed win. While his current form does not add much value to these odds the No.18 car’s past performance at this track does. Busch had a disastrous 32nd-place finish in last year’s race and could only manage sixth in the second race at Bristol in 2012, but overall, he has won here five times and has an overall finishing position of 10.3.

Next on the list as a 13/2 second-favorite to win this race is Brad Keselowski. Aided by three top-five finishes in his first three races, the defending champ is currently in second-place in the Sprint Cup standings with 124 points. The No.2 car has been in position to win all three of those races and has already led a total of 33 laps this year. Adding even more value to these odds is the fact that Keselowski won this race last season after winning the second race at Bristol during the 2011 season.  

The third-favorite to win on Sunday is current point leader Jimmie Johnson. After starting off this season with a huge victory in the Daytona 500, the No.48 car finished second at Phoenix and sixth last week at Las Vegas to rack-up a total of 129 points so far. Johnson last won this race in 2010 for his only career victory at this track. A second-place finish in the second race at Bristol last season was his seventh top-10 finish in his last eight races here.

Last Sunday’s winner has been opened at 17/2 NASCAR odds to make it two in-a-row. Matt Kenseth always adds value to his odds as a legitimate threat to win anytime he gets behind the wheel. The No.20 car has already led 128 laps this season and is currently seventh in the standings with 93 points. Kenseth finished second in this race last season and has two previous victories at this track. He has six top-10 finishes in his last seven races and his overall finishing position here is 12.1.

Top Value Pick 

Carl Edwards almost won the 2011 Sprint Cup title but became a forgotten man last season after not even making the Chase. He has already turned things around in 2013 with a victory at Phoenix and a fifth-place finish in last Sunday’s race. The No.99 car has been opened at 14/1 to win this race, and given his current form, we like those odds enough to make Edwards out top value pick to take the checkered flag. He struggled at this track last season but during his run at a title in 2011, he took second place in this race and finished ninth in the second race at Bristol that year.