NASCAR Heads to Sin City for Pennzoil 400

David Schwab

Thursday, March 1, 2018 1:54 PM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 1, 2018 1:54 PM UTC

NASCAR’s Monster Energy Cup Series begins a set of three races out west with a stop at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for Sunday’s Pennzoil 400. This is the only points race of the season in the gambling capital of world, and it is set to get underway on FOX at 3:30 p.m. (ET).

Last Sunday in Atlanta, Kevin Harvick got a leg up on the field with a victory in the Folds of Honor Quiktrip 500. Brad Keselowski took second in the race and veteran driver Clint Bowyer made his way into the top three. The betting odds at 5Dimes for this Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 in Las Vegas have been posted, and the following is a closer look at where you can find some of the best value is when it comes to betting this race.

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It all started at @LVMotorSpeedway in 2017 for @MartinTruex_Jr.

Could history repeat itself?

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) March 1, 2018

Top Valued Favorite

Both Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. have been opened as +500 favorites to win this race. Each driver offers some value at the top of the list if you are looking to go chalk, but Harvick only won two races all last season and Truex has an average finishing position of 13.2 in his career at Las Vegas.

There is a trio of drivers in the favorites category at +650 betting odds consisting of Keselowski, Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson. Of the three, the best value to win goes to Larson. It has been a slower than expected start for the No. 42 Chevrolet, but the team is moving in the right direction with a ninth-place finish at Atlanta coming off a 19th-place run at Daytona.

The main reason I am going with Larson as my top valued favorite is a solid showing at Las Vegas in recent runs, highlighted by a second-place finish in last year’s race.

Top Valued Contender

This week’s contender category is filled with any number of solid plays led by Chase Elliott at +1150 odds. Jimmie Johnson and Joey Logano have been opened at +1350 and Denny Hamlin is also in this group at +1650.

With a strong combination of current form and recent results at this week’s venue, I am going with Logano as my top valued contender. He guided the No. 22 to a fourth-place finish in a wreck-filled Daytona 500 before taking sixth in last week’s race. This is a highly-motivated racing team after missing the 10-race playoff last season. Logano is still looking for his first victory at Las Vegas in a Cup Series race, but he has been right in the mix the past few trips around this track with a finish of fourth or better in three of his last four runs.

Top Valued Long Shot

The odds run deep at 5Dimes for the rest of the field in Sunday’s race, but given the wide-open nature of the first two races this season, there is some value to be found in the numbers. Ryan Blaney heads the list of long shots at +2150 followed closely by Clint Bowyer and Kurt Busch at +2250 odds. Erik Jones’ odds to win are set +3150 and Aric Almirola has +3300 odds.

The really deep odds on the board at Las Vegas have Alex Bowman and Austin Dillon at +10000. These young guns made a name for themselves at Daytona with Bowman taking the pole for the Daytona 500 driving the No. 88 Chevrolet, and Dillon winning that race in the No. 3 Chevrolet as a tribute to the Earnhardt name.

I am going to take a flyer on Bowman as my top valued long shot this week. His first two trips around the track as Dale Jr.’s replacement have been rather forgettable with finishes well outside the top 10, but this race is in Las Vegas and that is what gambling is all about.

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