NASCAR’s Monster Energy Cup Series heads to Kentucky Speedway this week for the running of the Quaker State 400. Saturday night’s prime-time broadcast on NBC Sports Network is slated to get underway at 7:30 ET.
Last week at Daytona, I went with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. as my top-value long shot, and he came through with the victory at +2200 betting odds. The top three in that race was filled with long shots as well after Clint Bowyer took second and Paul Menard ended up third.
The following is a look at my top valued favorite, contender and long shot to win this Saturday night at Kentucky based on betting odds as provided by 5Dimes.
Top Valued Favorite
One of the top drivers in the Cup series over the past several years has been Kyle Busch, but his No. 18 Toyota appears to be a bit snake-bit this season with six runs inside the top five in 17 events but none that resulted in a trip to Victory Lane. This team has raced well enough to hold down the No. 3 spot in the current standings with 559 total points, but it also knows that a victory here or there still might be needed to officially secure a spot in this year’s playoff. Busch has been opened as a +600 third-favorite to get that first win Saturday night, and with an excellent track record at Kentucky there is some solid value in those odds. He won this race in 2015 and his average finishing position here is 5.2.
Top Valued Contender
One of the main things that I look for as a top valued contender is a quality driver at longer than usual odds for that week’s race. Joey Logano fits the bill this week at +1100 to win Saturday night. He did win earlier this season at Richmond, and the No. 22 Ford is tied for second on the list when it comes to Top 5 finishes with seven. This has the team holding down 12th place in the standings with 442 total points. Last year’s trip around the track at Kentucky was forgettable after a wreck ended Logano’s night early, but this was on the heels of a second-place run in this event in 2015. He also took fourth in 2013 as part of a string of three straight runs inside the Top 10.
Top Valued Long Shot
Fresh off cashing in on last week’s long-shot pick, I have decided to really roll the dice this week on Ryan Newman at +10000 betting odds. Currently in 15th place in the standings with 399 total points, he is still in great shape to make it into the field of 16 for this year’s playoff given the No. 31 Chevrolet’s earlier victory this season at Phoenix. Current form is solid with a fifth-place finish last week at Daytona, and he also placed fourth last month at Dover. The main value in Newman’s long odds to win this race is a solid record at Kentucky that includes a third-place finish in this race in both the 2014 and 2016 seasons.
Odds For Other Notable Drivers
Martin Truex Jr. has been opened as the top favorite to win this year’s Quaker State 400 at +450 betting odds, and he is currently second in the standings. Kyle Larson leads the Cup series standings with 667 total points, and he is the second-favorite on the board this week to win at +500. Brad Keselowski joins Busch at +600 odds, and both Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson are next on the list at +800. Chase Elliott’s odds to win his first Cup series event this week have been set at +1200.Talk NASCAR Betting In Our Forum