NASCAR Cup Series South Point 400: Looking For Betting Value In Martin Truex Jr

Kevin Harvick closed out the Cup Series regular season in solid form by winning last Sunday’s race at Indianapolis. Joey Logano and Bubba Wallace rounded out the top three drivers.

The real quest for this season’s Cup Series racing title begins this Sunday night at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and 5Dimes online sportsbook has released its odds to win the South Point 400. The following is a closer look at three drivers with some solid value in their current betting numbers.

Martin Truex Jr. +880

As one of three drivers with four point-race wins this season along with Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin, Truex immediately adds some value to his odds to win.

He is ranked third in the updated Cup Series standings with 2019 total points. He is also tied for third in Top 10 finishes with 15 in 26 previous events. Driving the No. 19 Toyota, Truex has 10 runs inside the top five.

After four-straight runs of sixth or better, last Sunday’s fade to 27th at Indy was his third-straight finish outside the top 10 drivers. Current form aside, he usually gives bettors a chance to win each and every week.

An eighth-place effort at Las Vegas earlier this season was his fourth-straight Top 10 finish at this track highlighted by a victory in 2017. Truex placed third in this event last year.

Kyle Larson +1320

Larson is still looking for his first victory this season but his overall effort on the track has the No. 42 Chevrolet tied for ninth place in the current standing with a total of 2005 points.

He has finished inside the top five in six races with another six in the top 10. He has also wrecked six times, including last Sunday at Indy to fade to 33rd in the final running order.

This hit or miss approach to racing can be seen as a drain on these betting odds but they are long enough to pique my interest. I also think that Larson is due in the midst of an extended drought since winning four races in the 2017 season.

I am also encouraged by his second-place finish at Las Vegas in this race last season. Before fading to 12th in this year’s first race, Larson posted three-straight runs inside the top three.

Alex Bowman +3300

This would have to be considered a very low percentage play for a number of reasons, but as a true longshot, there are a few things I do like about Bowman in this race.

Driving the No. 88 Chevrolet, he starts his quest for a racing title tied for ninth in the standings along with Larson and Erik Jones. Earlier this season, he posted his first career victory in his fifth Cup Series season with a win at Chicago.

At one point this year, he posted three-straight runner-up finishes as another highlight of the 2019 racing resume. Working against the value in his odds is eight finishes outside the top 10 in his last nine events following that Chicagoland win.

Bowman’s track record at Las Vegas is another drain on these longshot odds. He posted his best career finish here earlier this year by taking 11th in that first race.

Talk Racing At SBR’s NASCAR Betting Forum