The march towards this season’s 10-race playoff to the 2019 Cup Series racing title continues this Sunday with the 22nd event on the schedule. Last Sunday at Pocono, Denny Hamlin posted his third victory of the year ahead of Erik Jones, who was my top-valued longshot to win at +2200 odds. Martin Truex Jr. rounded out the Top 3.
Turning my attention to this Sunday’s main event at Watkins Glen, the following three drivers offer the best value on the board at 5Dimes online sportsbook to win the second road-course race of the year.
Martin Truex Jr. +370
Kyle Busch may be the top favorite to win this race at 5Dimes with +250 betting odds, but I love the added value in Truex when you take a closer look at what he brings into this event. Road courses are highly unfamiliar to most of the drivers in Sunday’s field to add tremendous value to the ones that have had recent success off of the traditional oval. Truex is currently tied with Busch with a series-high four point-race victories. Driving the No. 19 Toyota, he already demonstrated his current road course form with a win at Sonoma earlier this season. Last week’s third-place run at Pocono is another good sign.
When it comes to his recent racing form on Watkins Glen’s road course, Truex also scores some pretty high grades. After winning this event in 2017, he placed second to Chase Elliott in last year’s race.
Kevin Harvick +1300
The only real reason why Harvick is on this week’s list as my top contender is the longer odds to win. While his win at New Hampshire two weeks ago was his first of the season, he has still raced well enough to keep his No. 4 Ford racing team in third place in the current Cup Series standings with 739 points. This resume also includes 13 Top 10 finishes through the first 21 point races of the season. Harvick always gives you a chance to win regardless of that week’s track.
Part of the longer odds this week can be traced to a pedestrian 13.3 average finishing position on this road course. Harvick’s lone career victory here was in 2006 and his best finish since then is third in 2015. The true value in this odds is that ability to win any race he runs.
Daniel Suarez +3000
I moved down the list a bit further this week for my top-valued longshot. Racing in just his third Cup Series season, Suarez needs a couple of strong efforts to qualify for this season’s 16-driver, 10-race playoff to the 2019 racing title. His No. 41 Ford racing team is on the outside looking in right now in 18th place with 501 total points. With just two runs inside the top five in 21 events, he knows all too well that his best chance to make the playoff field is with a win. I just so happen to think that his best chance to accomplish that feat is this Sunday at Watkins Glen.
This will be Suarez’s third career Cup Series race at The Glen and he has already demonstrated his ability to navigate the course with a third-place finish in 2017 followed by a fourth-place run last season. In a field of drivers that excel at making just left turns all day, he already has a built-in edge.