Kevin Harvick Heads Into Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 as a +475 Second-Favorite
Kyle Busch just posted his fourth victory of the season in a point race with Sunday’s win at Pocono. He moved ahead of Brad Keselowski (3 wins), who finished second in that race. Erik Jones was next in the final running order to round out the Top 3. My top-valued favorite to win at Pocono was Martin Truex Jr. at +650, but his day ended early with a blown engine.
Kevin Harvick +475
It is hard for me to believe that Harvick is still looking for his first victory of the year in a point race after making the trip to the Winner’s Circle eight times last season. That is one of the main reasons why he has been my top-value favorite more than a few times in the first 14 Cup Series races on the schedule. Despite the current drought, the No. 4 Ford has been extremely competitive with nine runs inside the top 10, including five in the top five. This team is currently in fifth place in the Cup Series standings with 500 total points.
Harvick also adds value to this week’s odds with his recent racing form at Michigan. He placed second in this event last season before winning the second race here later in the year. He has finished inside the top five in nine of his last 12 trips around this oval.
Joey Logano +1050
Along with his early season win at Las Vegas, the defending Cup Series Champ has been in top form lately with six runs of seventh or better in his last seven point races. He placed seventh at Pocono last Sunday after a runner-up effort at Charlotte. The No. 22 Ford was also second at Richmond as part of this current run. This recent success has moved the team into second place in the standings behind Kyle Busch with a total of 564 points. Through the first 14 races, Logano has posted seven runs inside the top five and he has only finished outside the top 10 in four events.
This is another driver that adds some solid value to his betting odds based on his recent performance at this week’s venue. Going all the way back to the 2013 Cup Series season, Logano has finished inside the top 10 in 11 of 12 point races. He won this event in 2016 after winning the second race at Michigan in 2013.
Clint Bowyer +2150
As a long-time veteran of Cup Series racing at 40 years old, you can always count on Bowyer to make a run at the checkered flag in quite a few races over the course of the racing season. So far this year, the No. 14 Ford has posted five runs inside the top five after finishing fifth at Pocono its last time out. The best run was a second-place finish at Texas. This effort has the team in 10th place in the current standings with 402 total points.
The real value in his longer odds to win on Sunday is Bowyer coming into Michigan as the defending champ after winning the 2018 FireKeepers Casino 400. This was one of his two victories last year.