NASCAR Cup Series Picks: Dover Drydene 400

Martin Truex Jr. is eyeing the Season Sweep at Dover’s Monster Mile

There are now just 12 drivers in contention for this season’s Cup Series racing title after Chase Elliott took the checkered flag in last Sunday’s combination oval/road course at Charlotte. Alex Bowman took second to make it through the first elimination round and Kevin Harvick finished third.

Heading into the first of three races in the next stage of the Cup Series playoff to the racing title, I came up with three drivers with the best betting value in their posted odds to win at Dover using 5Dimes online sportsbook.

Martin Truex Jr. +350

A co-favorite to win with Kyle Busch, I am going with Truex Jr. to win his third playoff race in four tries. The first two victories at Las Vegas and Richmond gave him series-high six wins on the year. Even in a seventh-place finish on the hybrid roval at Charlotte, he kept his chances to win alive. When you add in the fact that the No. 19 Toyota has finished inside the top 10 in 18 of the first 29 point-race events, this tells me he will be right in the thick of things at Dover this Sunday.

It also helps that Truex will be going for the season sweep at Dover after winning the first event this year. This has been one of his favorite tracks over the past few seasons. Ever since his victory in this event during the 2016 season, Truex has tamed the Monster Mile with finishes of fourth or better in five of his last six Cup Series events.

Brad Keselowski +1000

The No. 2 Ford has three victories this season with Keselowski behind the wheel. The last win was at Kansas earlier in the season. However, he has come close to taking the checkered flag in the playoff with three-straight finishes inside the top five. This kind of consistent racing form adds a ton of value to this week’s odds for a driver that does know how to win races this time of the year. Keselowski is holding down a tie for sixth place in the current Cup Series standings with 3024 total points. A win on Sunday would automatically seal a spot in the next elimination round.

Dragging these odds down a bit is his pedestrian 13.2 average finishing position at Dover over the course of his Cup Series career. His best finish in this event in recent years was fourth in 2016 when he started from the pole.

Ryan Blaney +2000

Despite just one Top 5 finish in the first three playoff races (fifth at Las Vegas), Blaney still managed to work his way to 10th place in the current standings with 3004 total points. Unless he picks up the pace, his No. 12 Ford will be racing for pride in the final four playoff events. However, a win on Sunday will keep his title hopes alive. Blaney is one of NASCAR’s true young guns racing in his fourth full-time season at the Cup Series level. He is still looking for his first victory this season after posting at least one win in each of his previous two campaigns. It is fairly obvious why his odds to win are so high but I sill see value in this number.

Blaney’s first seven Cup Series trips around the Monster Mile have basically been forgettable. His best finish was eighth in the first race of the 2018 season. Yet, that is not stopping from me from making him my top-valued longshot this time around.