Alex Bowman stunned the field last Sunday by winning the Camping World 400 at Chicagoland Speedway. My top contender in that race was Kyle Larson at +1000 odds and he almost paid off big in second place. Joey Logano rounded out the top three drivers.
Joey Logano +880
Given just how hard it is to keep a car on the track, let alone win at Daytona, you always get some longer odds on the board. Logano is a gift at these odds given his current racing form coming into this race. He has the No. 22 Ford in the top spot of the current Cup Series standings with 677 points. Through 17 previous point-race events this season, he has two victories and another seven runs inside the top five. With last week’s third-place finish, Logano has placed in the Top 3 in three of his last five trips around the track.
The biggest value his odds to win on Saturday night is the rare consistency that Logano has shown at Daytona. Wrecks are a big part of the picture here, but he has managed to place sixth or better in five of his last six races around this oval. This includes a fourth-place finish in this year’s Daytona 500.
Kyle Busch +1100
Busch is coming off a rough outing at Chicago with the No. 18 Toyota placing 22nd in that race. This followed four-straight Top 5 finishes, including a victory at Pocono. The entire 2019 racing resume boasts four Cup Series wins and a total of 10 runs inside the top five. This team is second in the standings with a total of 659 points. Its average finishing position through 17 events is 6.9. When you can get NASCAR’s top driver at these long of odds, it automatically becomes the top-valued pick on the board.
You can also add in the fact that Busch will undoubtedly be running Saturday night’s race with a big chip on his shoulder. Back in February, he was in excellent position to win the Daytona 500, but he gave way to teammate Denny Hamlin to place second. If he finds himself in position to win again in this race, do not expect the same generosity.
Kyle Larson +2500
I had a feeling Larson would race well at Chicago as my top contender and I love the value in his even longer odds to remain right in the mix this time around as well. Things have not always gone according plan this season for the No. 42 Chevrolet team, but last week’s effort was a big step in the right direction. The pressure to win to earn a playoff spot continues to build sitting in 13th place in the standings with 451 total points. Larson knows he can use the momentum from Chicago to possibly get one on Saturday night.
One of his six runs inside the top 10 this season was a seventh-place finish in the Daytona 500. While Larson’s average finishing position at this track is a dismal 23.3, he has made an early exit in five of his 11 career runs due to a wreck. If he can keep his car on the track and on the lead lap, it could turn into a big payday for this week’s longshot pick.