NASCAR Cup Series: FireKeepers Casino 400 Betting Picks

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NASCAR Cup Series: FireKeepers Casino 400 Betting Picks
Photo by Matt Sullivan/Getty Images/AFP

NASCAR Cup Series: FireKeepers Casino 400

Saturday, August 8, 2020 at 4 p.m. ET (NBCSN) in Brooklyn, Michigan

Race Info

NASCAR’s Cup Series resumes on Saturday in Michigan and we have a strong betting pick with analysis for you. This event is so-called because, in completing 200 laps, drivers will have accumulated 400 miles.
There will be three stages. Stage 1 and Stage 2 both mandate 60 laps each. Stage 3 requires 80 laps.

Track Info

Michigan International Speedway is considered an intermediate track as it is two miles long. Its structure resembles a D-shaped oval and asphalt covers its racing surface. In 2012, Michigan’s racetrack was repaved. This repaving action encourages the greater speed for which races at this venue are notorious.

Moreover, the track enjoys a positive level of banking. Each turn is banked at 18 degrees, which is higher than we’ve seen at several other racing tracks. What is unique about Michigan is its higher level of banking on the straightaways. Most of the previous racing tracks have featured little, if any, banking in the straightaways. Here, the backstretch is banked at five degrees and the front stretch is banked at 12 degrees. Banking encourages speed because, if the driver navigates the structural alteration well, then he’ll collect more momentum.

Still, some racing venues have tight turns and encourage tighter spaces in general with the result that passing becomes difficult and opportunities for greater speed are harder to locate. But one famous aspect of Michigan’s track is that the turns are wide. Lastly, the front stretch is long at 3,600 feet and the backstretch also enjoys a nice length at 2,242 feet. Longer straightaways encourage drivers to accumulate greater speed without interrupting their forward-going momentum by attempting to navigate a turn.

Starting Lineup

Top sportsbooks have yet to release their odds for this event because NASCAR officials have not established the starting lineup. As has always been the case since the season’s restart, the order of starting position will be determined by random draw. But due to the width of this track, which should facilitate easier opportunities to pass drivers less dangerously, I do not think that starting position will be very significant.

Stay Away From These Two Drivers

One driver that you may be inclined to invest in is Brad Keselowski. He won NASCAR’s last race and it may feel enticing to bet on a Michigan native at this track. One trend that speaks against Keselowski is the following: after each of the last four races which Keselowski won, he finished outside the top five in the following race.

Moreover, his history at Michigan is poor as he’s finished outside the top five in five of his last six attempts at this track.
I think you should likewise stay away from Chase Elliott, although he merited significant confidence back in May and the first half of June. Elliott has both a poor history in Michigan and exhibits disappointing racing form. He’s finished outside the top 10 in four of his last six races overall. Plus, he’s finished eighth or worse in his last five attempts at Michigan. Look for oddsmakers at BetOnline, Bovada, or other best sportsbooks to release match-up odds and look to fade both of these drivers.

My Favorite Bet

Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch – Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images/AFP

With my NASCAR betting picks, I want to invest in Kyle Busch. I know that I stated that Kyle Busch was a boom-or-bust pick. Kyle Busch suffered an absolute flop in NASCAR’s last race at New Hampshire. But consider that in four of the last five races where he finished 20th or worse, he finished top-five in the next race. In the one exception, he finished sixth at The Brickyard even though it is, historically speaking, absolutely one of his worst racing tracks. Conversely, at Michigan, he is NASCAR’s best driver in terms of average finishing position since 2017. Busch has finished top-five in three of his last four attempts at Michigan. In the one exception, he finished sixth after starting 22nd.

The Verdict

A strong trend suggests that Busch will perform well on Saturday. He will use his strong experience at Michigan, where he’s had so many great efforts recently, to his advantage. We’re looking for Kyle Busch to win at +1200 with 5Dimes. (Visit our 5Dimes Review) On the other side, look to fade Elliott and Keselowski for reasons stated above.

Kyle Busch+1200
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