NASCAR Coca-Cola 600 Top Betting Pick

profile
Tilton/Getty Images/AFP

NASCAR’s next big event will be broadcast on Sunday and we have a winner for you to bet on. Read on for analysis.

NASCAR Cup Series

Charlotte Motor Speedway

Sunday, May 24, 2020 at 6 p.m. ET

Sunday’s NASCAR event is coined the Coca-Cola 600 because 600 miles will be driven in 400 laps.  This is therefore NASCAR’s longest race and the only event that comprises four stages. Each stage consists of 100 laps.
So, starting position will be rather uninteresting to note for the Coca-Cola 600

This detail should encourage you to place your NASCAR betting pick as soon as you like. There’s no reason to wait. In case you’re curious, the actual starting position, as well as stalls for pit selection, will be determined by race-day qualifying. 

Martin Truex Jr.

My NASCAR betting pick will be on Martin Truex Jr. to win the Coca-Cola 600. One may be skeptical of Truex Jr. for the following reason, that I want to address: Truex Jr. has not enjoyed his best season.

Whereas 2019 was, for him, filled with top-10 finishes, the same cannot be said for Truex Jr. in 2020. Before the COVID-19-induced break, Truex Jr. had accomplished only one top-10 finish in six competitions. But this break has apparently benefitted Truex Jr. because he has finished top-10 in each of the last two races.

His two recent top-10 finishes are noteworthy considering the fact that they took place at Darlington Raceway. Truex Jr.’s history is less than impressive at Darlington Raceway where he averages a finishing position outside the top 10 and where his past two finishes were also outside the top 10. In both 2020 races at Darlington, he started outside of the top 10 but then finished sixth and 10th, respectively.

Because those races were shorter and given the track’s features, such as its narrowness, passing was more difficult than it would be on Sunday. By comparing his last performances at Darlington with his history there, it’s evident that he boasts a strong racing form. So without any reason to be skeptical of Truex Jr., let’s look at some reasons for backing him:

History

Truex Jr.’s history at Charlotte Motor Speedway is solid: he’s finished top-three at that track in each of the past four years. Last year, he won the Coca-Cola 600.

Style 

Truex Jr. is open about his proclivity for racing on old asphalt surfaces. The Chicagoland Speedway is one other historically grounded example that has provided the context for his expression of this stylistic proclivity. Charlotte Motor Speedway, too, offers an older asphalt surface.

Trends

Note two trends that apply to Truex Jr… One: four of the last five competitors who won this event drove a Toyota. Two, the past two winners of this event formed a part of the Joe Gibbs Racing team.

Martin Truex Jr., Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP

Kyle Busch

You might ask: don’t both trends apply to Kyle Busch, as well, and hasn’t he been performing well, lately? Yes, but here’s why I definitely prefer Truex Jr: Truex Jr. has a better race history than Busch at Charlotte Motor Speedway. I base this by comparing the average finishing position with average starting position. I also base this comparison on recent history.

Plus, I wonder if Chase Elliott will not retaliate and knock Kyle Busch out of the race after Busch ruined Elliott’s chances of winning the last race. Elliott could only respond by showing Busch the middle finger.

The Verdict

Given his track history, his current form, his style, and with key trends in mind, Martin Truex Jr., should be the man you invest your money in to win the Coca-Cola 600.

At sportsbooks like BetOnline and 5Dimes, you will see that NASCAR oddsmakers underrate Truex Jr. as the result of superficial data like overall standings that do not appreciate the reasoning that I have given in favor of Truex Jr.

NASCAR Pick: Martin Truex Jr. to win at +660 with 5Dimes

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images/AFP